碳酸锂周报：碳酸锂市场强势突破，供应扰动与成本支撑博弈-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely at high levels. The pressure at the 100,000 - yuan integer mark is significant, and the support below is in the range of 95,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton. The market is in a high - level shock stage after a strong breakthrough. The core contradiction lies in the game between the supply side (with both increased capacity utilization and expected seasonal reduction in salt - lake lithium extraction) and the demand side (supported by strong demand for energy - storage cells but with marginal slowdown in cathode material production), as well as the cost support due to the deep - loss state of the entire industry [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - Price Changes: Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot prices rose 5.1% to 95,750 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade rose 5.24% to 94,350 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 6.03% to 97,720 yuan/ton, with a weekly amplitude of 11.5%. The spot prices of different types of lithium hydroxide also increased, with the increase rates ranging from 3.11% to 3.53% [2][5] - Basis Structure: The basis maintained a contango structure, widening 85.85% week - on - week to - 1,970 yuan/ton, indicating that the futures price increase led the spot price [2] - Futures Position: The futures position increased 13.5% week - on - week to 636,000 lots, showing intensified divergence between long and short positions and fierce capital games [2] Lithium Salt Fundamentals - Supply - China's Lithium Carbonate Production: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate increased 10.86% to 83.52% week - on - week, and the total output in December is expected to increase 3% month - on - month. However, the expected seasonal production reduction in salt - lake lithium extraction and the 4.65% decline in lithium hydroxide capacity utilization offset each other [2] - Supply - Output from Different Raw Material Sources: Not provided in the content - Import and Export - Lithium Ore Transportation Cost: For South Africa, the freight for bulk transportation remained unchanged at 26.00, and the freight for container transportation decreased 12.50% to 28.00. For Zimbabwe, the freight for both bulk and container transportation remained unchanged. For Nigeria, the freight for bulk transportation was unchanged, and the container freight increased 5.88% to 18.00 [28] - Import and Export - Lithium Carbonate: Not provided in the content - Import and Export - Seasonal Changes: Not provided in the content - Import and Export - Lithium Hydroxide: Not provided in the content - Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Social Inventory: Not provided in the content - Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts: The exchange warehouse receipts increased 37.8% week - on - week to 15,050 lots. The upstream lithium ore warehouse available inventory doubled to 10,000 tons week - on - week, showing obvious signs of inventory accumulation at the raw material end [2][41] - Cost and Profit - Lithium Carbonate: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased 7.64% to 104,970 yuan/ton, higher than the spot price. The production profit of the externally purchased concentrate route was - 9,219.6 yuan/ton, and although the loss narrowed 43.59% week - on - week, the entire industry was still in a deep - loss state [2] Lithium Battery Fundamentals - Market - Cathode Materials: Not provided in the content - Supply - Cathode Material Production: The weekly production of ternary and lithium - iron materials decreased month - on - month, showing marginal signs of slowdown [2] - Supply - Electrolyte Price and Production: Not provided in the content - Demand - Cathode Material Consumption: Not provided in the content - Import and Export - Lithium Battery Materials: Not provided in the content - Import and Export - Batteries: Not provided in the content - Cost and Profit - Ternary Materials: Not provided in the content - Lithium Battery Recycling: Not provided in the content - New Energy Vehicles - Production and Sales: Not provided in the content