Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The MEG has limited downside space and has support at the [3400] price level. In the context of weak cost (oil and coal), high self - valuation, and large - scale production in 2026, the EGO1 price is under continuous pressure. From a realistic perspective, the inventory accumulation amplitude from November to December is relatively obvious, and there is still pressure from the expectation of new device production in the far - month. In the medium - to - long - term fundamental cycle, ethylene glycol may enter a new expansion cycle from 2026 - 2027. New production in 2026 is about 2.15 million tons, and there are still many large - scale device production plans after 2027. Therefore, the ethylene glycol price will show a bottom - consolidation state later [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Single - side Situation EG - The explicit inventory has accumulated relatively quickly on a month - on - month basis, and the absolute level is still at a neutral level in the same period of history. The port shipment volume has slightly rebounded on a month - on - month basis this cycle, and the absolute level has reached a low level over the years. The MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 795,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons). The ethylene glycol inventory of polyester factories has remained flat on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory days of downstream factories are about 14.2 days, with an overall slightly higher - than - neutral level. As of December 11, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China is 69.98% (a month - on - month decrease of 3.01%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 72.17% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%). Many oil - based and coal - based devices have carried out or planned maintenance [7][8]. PF - This cycle, the price center of polyester raw materials has moved down, the short - fiber profit has slightly recovered on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory of downstream yarn mills has remained stable. The short - fiber load has remained high, and the absolute inventory level of short - fiber factories has decreased to a relatively neutral level. The profit of yarn mills has slightly recovered at a low level this cycle. The raw - material inventory of downstream yarn mills has remained stable on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory has run smoothly. The short - fiber production capacity expansion is limited from 2025 - 2026, and there is still support for the profit [9][66]. 2. MEG Key Concerns Supply - side Production Rhythm - Before the production: A 460,000 - ton syngas - to - ethylene glycol new device of Sichuan Wuguo Kai was put into production in the middle of the month and was included in the production and sales statistics in June; a 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device of Shandong Yuxian Chemical was put into production in September and was included in the production base in October. As of November 2025, the newly added production capacity in the current year is 1.5 million tons, with a production - capacity growth rate of 5.2%. A 200,000 - ton/year coal - to - ethylene glycol new device of Ningxia Kunpeng is expected to be put into production by the end of the year. It is estimated that the total newly added production capacity in 2025 is 1.7 million tons, with a production - capacity growth rate of 5.9% [18]. Demand - side Production Rhythm - As of November 2025, the total polyester production capacity put into production in the downstream demand side is 2.55 million tons, including 1.25 million tons of polyester bottle - chips and 950,000 tons of polyester filament. As of November 2025, the newly added production capacity in the current year is 2.55 million tons, with a production - capacity growth rate of 3.0%. There is still about 2.5 million tons of polyester production capacity to be put into production this year, and the expected annual production - capacity growth rate is about 6% [19]. Cost Curve - The process with the largest production - capacity proportion is taken as the upper - marginal anchor of the price; the process cost with the highest coal - to - ethylene glycol profit is taken as the lower - marginal anchor of the price. The enterprise production - capacity proportion of the naphtha - to - ethylene method in the ethylene method is the largest, accounting for 60% of the total ethylene - glycol production capacity. The cost of the ethylene - glycol naphtha - to - ethylene method in East China is 5185 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 1200 yuan/ton. The cost of the single - chain coal - to - ethylene glycol in East China is 4480 yuan/ton, and the coal - to - ethylene glycol profit is - 870 yuan/ton [19]. 3. MEG Supply - and - Demand Situation Load - As of December 11, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China is 69.93% (a month - on - month decrease of 3.01%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 72.17% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%). Many oil - based and coal - based devices have carried out or planned maintenance [30]. Inventory - The explicit inventory has accumulated relatively quickly on a month - on - month basis, and the absolute level is still at a neutral level in the same period of history. The port shipment volume has slightly rebounded on a month - on - month basis this cycle, and the absolute level has reached a low level over the years. The MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 795,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons). The ethylene glycol inventory of polyester factories has remained flat on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory days of downstream factories are about 14.2 days, with an overall slightly higher - than - neutral level [34]. Direct Demand - Polyester Load - A set of polyester filament and short - fiber devices have been shut down for maintenance this week, and a set of long - shut - down filament devices is warming up for restart but has not produced products normally yet. In addition, the load of other devices has been adjusted locally. As of this Friday, the preliminary calculation shows that the polyester load in mainland China is around 91.2%. As of December 11, the average order days of terminal weaving are 11.90 days, a decrease of 0.41 days compared with last week. The current market sales are still mainly winter fabrics. The spring orders for domestic and foreign trade have started, but the overall order quantity is not good. The new orders are mainly "small and scattered orders", and large orders are scarce. The average order days this week have continued to decline compared with last week. As of December 11, the average inventory level of terminal weaving finished products (long - fiber market) is 25.58 days, an increase of 0.96 days compared with last week. The large winter orders for domestic and foreign trade are scarce, and the current situation is mainly based on rigid - demand replenishment and previous contract delivery. The new large - batch orders are scarce, and the finished - product grey - cloth inventory has slowly climbed to 20 - 30 days. The market generally expects that there will be no improvement before the Spring Festival. As of December 11, the average inventory level of terminal weaving enterprise raw materials (polyester filament) is about 9.50 days, remaining stable compared with last week [40]. Direct Demand - Polyester Inventory - The absolute level of polyester inventory is relatively neutral [46]. Spread and Basis - When approaching the risk - free arbitrage opportunity, a positive spread can be arranged for MEG month - spread; the MEG basis reflects the spot situation, but due to the mature basis trade, the overall fluctuation is small; the MEG open interest reflects the degree of long - short divergence [52]. 4. PF Situation Valuation - From 2025 - 2026, the short - fiber production capacity expansion is limited, and there is still support for the profit. This cycle, the price center of polyester raw materials has moved down, the short - fiber profit has slightly recovered on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory of downstream yarn mills has remained stable. The short - fiber load has remained high, and the absolute inventory level of short - fiber factories has decreased to a relatively neutral level. The profit of yarn mills has slightly recovered at a low level this cycle. The raw - material inventory of downstream yarn mills has remained stable on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory has run smoothly [65][66]. Supply - The short - fiber supply has remained at a high level, and the absolute inventory has decreased to a relatively neutral level [78]. Downstream - The profit of downstream yarn mills has run stably this cycle, and the yarn - mill load has remained stable. The raw - material inventory of downstream yarn mills has slightly decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the absolute inventory level has a slightly higher pressure [84][90]. Spread and Basis - Information on PF2601 basis, PF1 - 2 month - spread, 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber processing fee, and PF2601 disk profit is provided, but specific analysis is not given in the summary [67][69].
EGPF周报：成本持续下跌叠加远月投产预期，乙二醇价格持续下行-20251216
Zhe Shang Qi Huo·2025-12-16 02:35