淡季需求压制，钢价弱势震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a weak and volatile state due to suppressed demand during the off - season. The prices of steel products, raw materials, and related futures contracts have generally declined. However, the fundamentals of finished steel are not under significant pressure, and the downward space for prices is limited. For different varieties: - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They show production cuts and inventory reduction. The demand for rebar has declined significantly, while the demand for hot - rolled coil shows certain resilience. Rebar should continue to focus on the support around 3000 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil should focus on whether it can stabilize around 3200 yuan/ton [3]. - Iron Ore: The supply has increased, the demand has continued to decline, and port inventory has reached a new high. The price is under overall pressure, and the support below is temporarily around 730 - 750 yuan/ton [4]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The overall supply has increased slightly, and the downstream transactions have improved. The coking plant and port coking coal inventories have accumulated, suppressing prices. After the second round of coke price cuts, there is still an expectation of further cuts, but the downward space for the disk price is limited. Coking coal should focus on the support around 1000 yuan/ton [5]. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 01 Market Review - Price Changes: Raw material price drops have dragged down steel prices. Spot and futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have generally declined, and the prices of imported iron ore and coke have also decreased. The basis of rebar has slightly increased [9]. - Inventory Changes: The five major steel products have continued to reduce inventory, with significant reduction in rebar social inventory and a slight decrease in factory inventory. The reduction in hot - rolled coil inventory has accelerated [9]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Rebar production has decreased significantly, with both blast furnace and electric furnace production cuts. The national hot - rolled coil production has also decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate has decreased month - on - month, while the electric furnace operating rate has remained stable. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased month - on - month [12][17][22]. - Demand: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil has both declined slightly, with a more obvious decline in rebar demand [31]. - Inventory: Rebar has continued to reduce inventory, with factory and social inventories both falling. Hot - rolled coil has slightly reduced inventory, with factory inventory increasing and social inventory decreasing [36][40]. - Downstream Market: In the real estate market, the transaction volume of commercial housing and the land market have both increased month - on - month. In the automotive market, the production and sales in November have continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year [45][48]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The arrival volume of iron ore at ports has increased significantly month - on - month, while the shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased slightly [53]. - Demand: The daily production of hot metal has continued to decline, and the port ore handling volume has remained stable [59]. - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory has reached a new high, while the steel enterprise iron ore inventory has decreased [64]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The operating rate of domestic coking mines has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has remained at a relatively high level [71]. - Demand: The coking coal auction transaction rate has increased, but the daily production of hot metal has continued to decline, and the steel mill replenishment power is limited [76]. - Inventory: The port coking coal inventory has continued to increase, and the coking plant inventory has rebounded. The coke port inventory has continued to decline, and the coking plant inventory has rebounded [84][90]. - Spot Price: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continues [96]. 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has both widened, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil have both slightly widened. The coil - to - rebar spread has fluctuated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal has slightly widened [102][106].