黑色建材日报：期货价格上扬，市场观望为主-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The steel market shows a pattern of macro - expectation implementation and price fluctuations. The iron ore market has intensifying supply - demand contradictions and wide - range price oscillations. The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply expectations and shows an oscillatory trend. The thermal coal market has weak spot prices and different views at ports [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,074 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil at 3,233 yuan/ton. Spot steel transactions were average, with prices rising slightly following the futures. National building materials transactions reached 101,217 [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Building materials' supply - demand fundamentals are improving, with decreasing production and low inventory pressure. Plate prices are suppressed by high inventory, but demand has resilience. Attention should be paid to demand, exports, production cuts, and profit changes during the off - season [1]. - Strategy: The unilateral strategy is to expect price oscillations, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [1]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. The 2605 contract closed at 753 yuan, down 0.92%. Spot prices fell slightly with few transactions, and steel mills restocked as needed [2]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: This week's iron ore shipments increased by 6.6% week - on - week to 3,592.5 million tons, with Australia up 4.3% and Brazil up 32.7%. Supply - demand contradictions are intensifying, inventory is rising, and some port supplies have weak liquidity, supporting high prices. Some steel mills have started production cuts, and there is an expectation of seasonal decline in molten iron. If port supply liquidity recovers, prices may face pressure [2]. - Strategy: The unilateral strategy is to expect price oscillations, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [2][3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated strongly, with coking coal prices rebounding significantly. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment for imported Mongolian coal [3]. - Logic and Views: For coking coal, supply is at a low level, and there is no obvious increase. Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, and overall supply - demand contradictions are not prominent. Steel mills' procurement is mainly for刚需, and the market's restocking willingness is weak. For coke, the second price cut has been implemented, profits are shrinking, supply has declined slightly, and demand is weak due to some steel mill overhauls and lack of winter - storage restocking [3][4]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [3][4]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, coal prices are weak, and snow has affected shipments. Some coal mines have stopped production. At ports, there are different views. Some traders think coal prices will stabilize due to increased daily consumption in cold weather, while others are selling at reduced prices due to high inventory and turnover requirements. Import coal has great pressure, and the market is inactive [4]. - Demand and Logic: Coal prices have been weak due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and high inventory. Some coal mines will stop production after completing annual tasks, and supply improvement is difficult. In the long - term, supply pattern changes, non - power coal consumption, and restocking should be monitored [4][5]. - Strategy: Attention should be paid to coal mine safety supervision, port inventory changes, daily consumption of power and chemical coal, and other unexpected events [6].