招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each commodity. The overall view is that different commodities face diverse market conditions, with some showing potential for price increases, others for decreases, and some expected to trade within specific ranges or remain volatile. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - Copper: Market showed a sideways movement yesterday. With economic data needing a boost, supply tightness persists, and the trading strategy is to buy on dips [2]. - Aluminum: The main contract price dropped by 1.13% yesterday. Supply increased slightly while demand weakened, and prices are expected to trade sideways [2]. - Alumina: The main contract price rose by 2.71% yesterday. Supply remained stable while demand was strong, but the upside is limited, and downward pressure persists [2]. - Zinc: The 2512 contract price fell by 0.78% yesterday. Supply tightened due to production cuts, demand was mixed, and the strategy is to buy on dips cautiously [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The main 05 contract price decreased by 0.48%. Supply increased and demand was stable, and the market is expected to trade weakly between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [2][3]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The main 05 contract price rose by 1.47%. Supply was stable while demand declined, and the market is expected to trade widely between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [3]. - Tin: The price moved weakly yesterday. Supply was tight, and the trading strategy is to buy on dips [3]. Black Industry - Rebar: The 2605 contract price rose by 4 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak, and the strategy is to mainly observe and consider shorting the 2605 contract [4]. - Iron Ore: The 2605 contract price rose by 1 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weakening, and the strategy is to mainly observe [4]. - Coking Coal: The 2605 contract price fell by 7.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weakening, and the strategy is to mainly observe and close previous positions [5]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans are in a downward trend. Supply is mixed, demand is divided, and the market is trading the expectation of a South American bumper harvest [6]. - Corn: Futures prices are oscillating, and spot prices are showing a mixed trend. Supply - demand is complex, and the futures are expected to decline while spot prices may weaken [6]. - Edible Oils: The Malaysian palm oil market is falling. Supply is seasonally decreasing but increasing year - on - year, demand is weak, and the market is expected to trade weakly [6]. - White Sugar: The 05 contract price fell by 1.34%. International and domestic markets are under pressure, and the strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - Cotton: US cotton prices are rising, and domestic prices are also increasing. Supply - demand is mixed, and the strategy is to buy on dips [7]. - Eggs: Futures prices are weak, and spot prices are stable. Supply - demand is balanced, and prices are expected to trade sideways [7]. - Hogs: Futures prices are oscillating, and spot prices are showing a mixed trend. Supply is abundant, demand is seasonally increasing, and prices are expected to trade sideways [7]. - Apples: The main contract price fell by 3.02%. Supply - demand is weak, and the strategy is to observe [7]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: The main contract showed a slight oscillation. Supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace, demand is weakening, and the short - term trend is weak while the long - term outlook is better [8][9]. - PVC: The V05 contract rose by 1.5%. Supply increased, demand decreased, and the strategy is to short [9]. - PTA: PX supply is high, PTA supply is short - term down and mid - term under inventory pressure. The strategy is to hold a long - term bullish view on PX and be cautious on PTA [9]. - Rubber: The 2605 contract showed a wide - range oscillation. Supply - demand is balanced with inventory increasing, and the market is expected to trade sideways [9]. - Glass: The FG05 contract rose by 0.4%. Supply - demand is weak, and the strategy is to use an inverse spread [9]. - PP: The main contract showed a slight oscillation. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and the short - term trend is weak while the long - term outlook is better [10]. - MEG: Supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the strategy is to take profits and wait for mid - term de - stocking opportunities [10]. - Crude Oil: Prices fell to a new low. Supply pressure is high, demand is in the off - season, and the strategy is to short [10]. - Styrene: The main contract showed a slight oscillation. Supply - demand is weak in the short - term and the strategy is to trade sideways, with a long - term bullish view on styrene [10][11]. - Soda Ash: The sa05 contract rose by 1.4%. Supply increased, inventory is high, demand is weak, and the strategy is to use an inverse spread [11].