日度策略参考-20251216

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Congo Tin [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Styrene, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Neutral: Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Silver, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Steam, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1][2] Core Views - Two major domestic meetings have concluded, releasing limited incremental information. In the short term, be wary of the "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustment after the implementation of meeting policies. Asset shortage and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside. Market sentiment has been fluctuating, with increased price volatility. Look for opportunities to buy at low levels [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Stock Index: Be cautious of post - policy "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustments [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are a constraint [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum: Limited industrial drivers, but fluctuating risk appetite leads to wide - range high - level oscillations [1] - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, with a weak fundamental outlook. Some short - sellers are leaving the market, causing a price rebound, but the upward momentum is limited [1] - Zinc: Short - term macro benefits have been digested. Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward, with an expected short - term bullish trend [1] - Nickel: Macro sentiment is fluctuating. Pay attention to domestic growth - stabilizing policies and Indonesia's 2026 nickel - mine RKAB approval. Global nickel inventories are high, and short - term prices may decline in a volatile manner [1] - Stainless Steel: Macro sentiment is volatile. Pay attention to policies and production. Raw - material nickel prices are falling, and futures prices are expected to decline in a volatile manner [1] - Tin: Due to the tense situation in Congo, it is considered bullish in the long term. Look for opportunities to buy on dips [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and have long - term upward potential [1] - Silver: Prices are highly volatile and may oscillate widely in the short term [1] - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and long - term buying on dips is recommended [1] - Palladium: May follow platinum's strength in the short term. The "long - platinum, short - palladium" arbitrage strategy can be continued [1] - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing, while Southwest production is decreasing. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon are decreasing [1] - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, and energy - storage demand is strong. However, supply is increasing, and there is significant pressure at the 100,000 - yuan level [1] Black Metals - Rebar: Futures - spot arbitrage positions can take rolling profits. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - Iron Ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, leaving room for upward movement in far - month contracts [1] - Manganese Silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, and prices are under pressure [1] - Ferrosilicon: Similar to manganese silicon, prices are under pressure [1] - Glass: Supply - demand is supportive, valuation is low, and prices are fluctuating upward [1] - Soda Ash: Follows the trend of glass. Supply - demand is okay, valuation is low, and downward space is limited [1] - Coking Coal: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to downstream winter - storage replenishment [1] - Coke: Similar to coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: High - frequency data is negative, and short - selling is recommended [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is likely over, and selling the 05 contract is advised [1] - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Pay attention to future policies, planting intentions, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. If prices fall further, cost support will be strong, but there is a lack of continuous short - term drivers [1] - Corn: The short - term supply - demand mismatch in the spot market has eased but not fully resolved. Pay attention to sales progress and inventory changes [1] - Soybean Meal: Domestic near - month contracts are strong, and far - month contracts are weak. Pay attention to oil - mill operations and South American weather [1] - Pulp: Futures prices are affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see on one - sided trading and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - Logs: Affected by falling external prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to decline in a volatile manner [1] - Pork: Spot prices are stabilizing, demand is supportive, but the production capacity has not been fully released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1] - Fuel Oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Raw - material cost support is strong, the futures - spot price difference is low, and intermediate inventory may start to accumulate [1] - BR Rubber: Trading volume has improved, and export support exists. High production and high inventory are still pressures, but long - term tire demand is increasing [1] - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, and consumption is stable. The cost is high, and the profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, and prices are falling. Coal prices are dropping, weakening the cost support [1] - Short Fiber: Prices closely follow the cost [1] - Styrene: Cost support is weak, production profitability is negative, and inventory has not significantly decreased [1] - Steam: Export sentiment has eased, and there is limited upside. There is support from the cost side [1] - Propylene: The monomer price is high, providing cost support. The oil - based cost is decreasing due to falling crude - oil prices [1] - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1] - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants are delaying production, and there is pressure to accumulate inventory in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high [1] - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the market is returning to a loose supply - demand situation. The PG price is oscillating within a range [1]