新能源及有色金属日报：去库持续，碳酸锂延续涨势-20251216

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The market for lithium carbonate is currently in a state of destocking, and prices continue to rise. However, there are still differences in the market. Whether the price can remain stable above 100,000 yuan/ton remains to be seen. Supply - side incremental expectations and the slowdown of destocking may suppress price increases. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis - On December 15, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 98,080 yuan/ton and closed at 101,060 yuan/ton, with a 1.40% change in the closing price compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 699,601 lots, and the open interest was 662,185 lots (634,283 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 3,190 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 15,260 lots, a change of 210 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 93,500 - 96,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 92,000 - 93,300 yuan/ton, both with a change of 650 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,220 US dollars/ton, a change of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. News about Bolivia's new president's plan to terminate some lithium - mining contracts with China has strengthened the expectation of tight lithium carbonate supply [1] Group 4: Inventory Situation - The current spot inventory is 111,469 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,133 tons. Among them, smelter inventory is 19,161 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1,606 tons), downstream inventory is 42,738 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 957 tons), and other inventory is 49,570 tons (a month - on - month increase of 430 tons). December is expected to maintain a destocking pattern, but the speed has slowed down [2] Group 5: Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly wait and see in the short term; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]