农产品日报：郑棉突破万四关口，白糖再创阶段新低-20251216

Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral to bullish, suggesting to focus on opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips [3] Core View - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated upwards yesterday, breaking through the 14,000 integer mark. Globally, the USDA made minor adjustments to the global cotton supply and demand data this month, with both production and demand decreasing in the 2025/26 season and a slight increase in ending stocks. In the short term, ICE U.S. cotton will remain under pressure, but in the medium to long term, it is in a low - valuation range with limited further downside. Domestically, cotton production continues to increase in the 2025/26 season. Short - term supply is abundant, but the resistance to hedging on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the cotton price downside is also limited [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 14,000 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,884 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,060 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. In India, the cotton listing volume on December 12, 2025/26 was about 42,000 tons of lint, and the CCI auctioned about 75,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment to global cotton supply and demand data in the 25/26 season was small, with both production and demand decreasing and ending stocks slightly increasing. The U.S. cotton production increased slightly, and the inventory pressure increased. The short - term ICE U.S. cotton is under pressure, and the upward drive is unclear. Domestic: Cotton production continues to increase in the 25/26 season. Short - term supply is abundant, but the resistance to hedging on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the cotton price downside is limited [2] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Focus on opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [7] Core View - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to be weak yesterday, hitting a new low in the night session. The global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 2025/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - to - medium - term international sugar price rebound space is limited. The fundamental driving force of Zhengzhou sugar is downward, but the short - term decline space is also limited [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract yesterday was 5207 yuan/ton, down 113 yuan/ton or 2.12% from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5295 yuan/ton, unchanged. As of December 15, 2025/26, 479 sugar mills in India were in operation, 6 more than the same period last year, and the sugar production was 7.79 million tons, an increase of 1.72 million tons or 28.34% [4] Market Analysis - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to be weak, hitting a new low. The short - term support for the raw sugar futures price to stop falling and rebound is limited by the unchanged global sugar supply surplus pattern. The fundamental driving force of Zhengzhou sugar is downward, but the short - term decline space is limited [5] Strategy - Neutral. Pay attention to the impact of the capital side on the futures market, and expect low - level consolidation [7] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The price of pulp futures oscillated and closed higher yesterday. Overseas supply is disturbed, and the demand in Europe has improved to some extent. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high, but the recent port inventory has declined significantly, and the future expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp price to stabilize [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract yesterday was 5572 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 0.69% from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5565 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price was mainly stable, with individual prices declining [7] Market Analysis - Overseas, there are continuous news of pulp mill shutdowns for maintenance, and the European demand has improved. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, the paper industry is in a state of overcapacity, and the port inventory is at a historical high, but the recent port inventory has declined, and the future expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp price [8] Strategy - Neutral. The previous bearish factors have been digested, and the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently, but the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation will limit the upward space. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the futures market [9]