新能源及有色金属日报：各地区现货升贴水全面走高-20251216

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period of the past five years. The spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, the inventory accumulation in China is still expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of overseas inventories. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is $90.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 23,470 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 70 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 23,390 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -10 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 210 yuan/ton to 23,380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -20 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On December 15, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 23,480 yuan/ton, closed at 23,430 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 168,578 lots, and the position was 83,302 lots. The highest price during the day was 23,600 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,205 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of December 15, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 125,700 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 64,475 tons, an increase of 2,550 tons from the previous trading day. [3]