高盛：中美科技竞争

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The United States maintains an advantage in high-end blueprint design, while China is rapidly catching up in technology application and digital infrastructure, particularly in robotics and electronic engineering talent cultivation [1] - U.S. export controls have accelerated China's domestic chip production but have not completely stifled its technological progress [1][4] - China is addressing restrictions by utilizing low-end chips and acquiring partial technology usage rights [4] - Control over rare earth resources by China poses a potential risk, necessitating the U.S. to enhance investments in rare earth mining and seek collaboration with allies like Australia and Canada to ensure supply chain security [1][5] - Increased research funding and attracting global talent are essential for the U.S. to maintain its technological leadership, alongside ensuring that technological development aligns with its values and standards [1][6] Summary by Sections Section 1: U.S.-China Technology Competition - Technology plays a crucial role in U.S.-China strategic competition, impacting military strength, economic influence, and information dissemination [3] - The U.S. leads in most advanced technologies such as semiconductors, AI frameworks, cloud infrastructure, and quantum computing, while China excels in quantum communication, hypersonic technology, and battery technology [3] - China is rapidly catching up in application areas, with its manufacturing sector utilizing robots at a rate 12 times higher than other countries [3] Section 2: Impact of U.S. Export Controls - U.S. export controls have accelerated China's efforts to reduce dependence on American chips, but they do not guarantee long-term U.S. technological leadership [3][4] - China is working to develop alternative technologies despite facing challenges due to these restrictions [12] Section 3: Rare Earth Resources - China's control over rare earth minerals is a significant concern for the U.S., which is taking measures to invest in rare earth mining and collaborate with allies to secure supply sources [5] Section 4: Measures for U.S. Competitiveness - The U.S. needs to increase research funding, attract top global talent, and ensure that its technological advancements align with its values to maintain competitiveness [6][7] Section 5: China's Strategic Focus - China must continue targeted investments in key areas, support local chip manufacturing, and build international trust to enhance its technological standing [8][9] Section 6: Semiconductor Self-Sufficiency - China is likely the only country that could achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency due to its large pool of STEM graduates and government support, although challenges remain in system integration and maintenance [11] Section 7: AI Competition - The U.S. relies on scaling GPU and computing power to maintain its lead in AI, while China's ability to overcome hardware bottlenecks will be critical [2][14] - Energy supply is a key factor for AI infrastructure, with China's unified grid facilitating easier power delivery compared to the U.S. [13]