集运日报：节前出货带动运价小幅上涨，盘面震荡上行，符合日报预期，已建议全部止盈-20251216

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Pre - holiday shipments drove a small increase in freight rates, and the futures market fluctuated upward, in line with the daily report's expectations. All positions were advised to take profits. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it's recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Information - Freight Rate Indexes: - On December 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period. - On December 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1060.86 points, up 10.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% from the previous period. - On December 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84% from the previous period. - On December 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1118.07 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1470.55 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 798.95 points, down 2.3% from the previous period [2] - Economic Data: - The euro - zone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service - sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and the expected value of 52.8, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The euro - zone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous value of - 7.4. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, dropping below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023. - The US November S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous value of 54.8. The US November S&P Global composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous value of 54.6 [2][3] - Market Conditions of the Main Contract: On December 15, the main contract 2602 closed at 1746.0, with a gain of 3.30%, a trading volume of 28,300 lots, and an open interest of 33,100 lots, an increase of 1401 lots from the previous day [3] - Trading Strategies: - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounded after a pull - back, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slowed down. Risk - takers were advised to take a light - position long on the main contract. All positions were advised to take profits, no additional positions were recommended, and no holding of losing positions was advised. Stop - losses should be set. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, each contract still followed the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. - Long - term strategy: All contracts were advised to take profits when reaching high levels, wait for a pull - back and stabilization, and then judge the subsequent direction. - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4] - Geopolitical Event: On December 14, the Qassam Brigades, an armed wing of Hamas, confirmed that its military manufacturing department head, Rad Said Saad, was killed in an Israeli attack, which was said to have violated the cease - fire agreement [5]