2026年海外宏观展望：弱复苏与再平衡

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates a "weak recovery + rebalancing" for the global economy in 2026, supported by four factors: balance sheet repair, loose monetary policy, fiscal expansion, and the AI investment wave, while constrained by high interest rates, tariff impacts, and difficulty in achieving synchronization across economies [1][19]. - The report highlights that the global economic recovery is expected to be more evident in quarter-on-quarter improvements rather than year-on-year increases, reflecting a gradual upward trend but with weak momentum [2][53]. - The analysis suggests that the economic performance of developed countries is likely to gradually recover, while emerging markets will remain relatively stable, indicating a convergence in economic performance across different regions [2][53]. Group 2 - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely only implement two rate cuts in 2026, aligning with the economic fundamentals, but there is a concern regarding the potential loss of the Fed's independence due to political influences surrounding the upcoming leadership change and midterm elections [3][55]. - It is noted that the macro environment is favorable for U.S. equities due to recovery and rate cuts, but the current valuations are at levels reminiscent of the 2000 internet bubble, which may limit upside potential [4][9]. - The report emphasizes that while U.S. Treasury yields may not decline significantly due to economic fundamentals, the change in Fed leadership and potential for unexpected rate cuts could create downward pressure on yields [4][36]. Group 3 - The report discusses the expected stabilization of the U.S. dollar due to a more balanced economic performance between the U.S. and Europe, although it is unlikely to see significant strength, with the Chinese yuan projected to appreciate slightly [4][38]. - Gold is expected to continue its upward trend, but the pace may slow due to high valuations, with a focus on the potential for industrial metals like silver and copper to outperform [4][41]. - The outlook for oil prices suggests a continuation of a weak trend due to oversupply, with Brent crude oil expected to stabilize around $60 per barrel, contingent on geopolitical factors not escalating [4][44].