2025年11月开发投资数据点评：销售价稳量收，市场及基本面分化

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Views - In November, the sales area and sales amount decreased by 18.6% and 27.6% year-on-year, respectively, with the decline in sales amount widening while the decline in sales area narrowed [1][2] - The average residential sales price in November was 9,594 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.1%, indicating significant market pressure [1][2] - The central economic work conference emphasized stability in real estate policies for the coming year, focusing on using existing stock for affordable housing, but did not mention strong expectations for mortgage subsidies [3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - November's residential sales area decreased by 18.6% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the decline compared to the previous month [1] - The cumulative sales area from January to November showed a decline of 8.1%, which is a worsening of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The sales amount in November fell by 27.6% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 3.03 percentage points from the previous month [1][2] Investment and Construction - The industry development investment in November decreased by 30.3% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 7.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - New construction area in November was down by 27.6% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than the previous month [2] - The completion area also saw a significant decline of 25.5% year-on-year, with the decline worsening by 25.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Funding Sources - The funds received in November decreased by 32.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 10.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Personal mortgage loans fell by 35.4% year-on-year, indicating a tightening in funding availability [2] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on second-hand housing transaction leaders such as Beike, regional leaders like Binjiang Group, quality state-owned enterprises like Yuexiu Property, and private enterprises with valuation recovery potential like New Town Holdings [3] - It also recommends paying attention to industry leaders among central state-owned enterprises such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Greentown China [3]