工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日）-20251216

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On the 15th, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,350 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.15%. The position increased by 11,817 lots to 201,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,580 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 dropped to 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 500 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 58,030 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.61%. The position increased by 16,408 lots to 143,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material remained stable at 52,350 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material remained stable at 52,350 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract expanded to 5,730 yuan/ton. [2] - Silicon plants in the southwest have reduced production to the previously expected level. Due to the long production reduction rhythm, the production reduction is less than the decline in downstream procurement volume, and the market is not very sensitive to the production reduction news. Current transactions are concentrated in hedging orders or undelivered previous orders. Industrial silicon is unlikely to show a trend in the short term and will continue to fluctuate and adjust. The exchange has increased margin requirements, limited positions, and expanded the delivery end for polysilicon to ease the intensity of squeeze fluctuations. Recently, there have been various speculations about the registration dynamics of the capacity storage company in the market, and there are differences in the feedback between the stock and futures markets. The surplus of polysilicon spot and the shortage of warehouse receipts have led to the decoupling of spot and futures operations. There is currently no upward driving force for the spot, but on the basis that there is no significant registration of warehouse receipts, the high virtual-to-real ratio structure provides support for the futures price. [2] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 85 yuan/ton to 8,350 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract remained unchanged at 8,385 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded by 85 yuan to 500 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 8,619, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 6,655 tons to 43,095 tons, the inventory at Huangpu Port decreased by 2,000 tons to 56,000 tons, the inventory at Tianjin Port decreased by 1,000 tons to 80,000 tons, the inventory at Kunming Port remained unchanged at 52,000 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 7,100 tons to 266,300 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 10,100 tons to 454,300 tons. [3] - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 840 yuan/ton to 58,030 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 2,385 yuan/ton to 59,385 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of polysilicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 52,300 yuan/ton, and the spot discount to the main contract expanded by 840 yuan to 5,730 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,640, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 109,200 tons, the factory inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 298,800 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 299,000 tons. [3] - Organic Silicon: The DMC price in the East China market remained stable at 13,700 yuan/ton, the price of raw rubber remained stable at 14,500 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue remained stable at 14,200 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,200 yuan/ton. [3] 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - The report provides charts showing the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices. [5][8][10] 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - The report provides charts showing the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [14][16][18] 2.3 Inventory - The report provides charts showing the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the DMC weekly inventory and polysilicon weekly inventory. [21][24] 2.4 Cost and Profit - The report provides charts showing the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon. [27][29][31]