黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日）-20251216

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term rebar futures market is expected to move in a narrow range, and the iron ore price shows a volatile trend. The coking coal and coke futures markets are expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are also expected to be volatile in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The trading volume declined. The investment data in November continued to weaken, and the steel market was in a weak supply - demand situation. It is expected to move in a narrow range in the short term [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price of iron ore fell. The supply from Australia and Brazil increased, while the iron - making output decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The short - term price trend is volatile [1] - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price rose, the spot price of some varieties changed, and the inventory in the factory continued to accumulate. Affected by factors such as the off - season and low downstream profits, the short - term market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1] - Coke: The coke futures price rose, the spot price fell, and the downstream demand decreased. The short - term market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1] - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened, and the spot price increased slightly. Although the market sentiment has been boosted, the fundamentals lack continuous upward driving force, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term [1] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened, and the spot price increased. The production is decreasing, but the terminal demand is weak. With the support of supply reduction, the short - term price is expected to be firm and volatile [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and spreads between different varieties [4] 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Price: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [5][6][7] - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts of various black commodities from 2022 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [15][16][17] - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spread: The report displays the inter - period contract spread trends of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [23][24][26] - 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spread: The report shows the trends of inter - variety contract spreads of main contracts, such as the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [41][42][44] - 3.5 Rebar Profit: The report presents the profit trends of rebar main contracts, including the on - disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [45][48][51] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, along with their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54][55]