有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日）-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining in a loss state. The New York Fed's data shows that the manufacturing sector is in a contraction state, but the outlook for the next six months has significantly improved. In China, the November economic data indicates that exports remain resilient, but domestic demand is weak, highlighting the need for policy support. With the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, there are macro - level disturbances, and short - term caution is advised [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina trended weakly, while aluminum alloy trended strongly. The end - of - year negotiation of new quarterly order prices for alumina is ongoing, and there is still downward pressure on alumina prices. With the Fed's interest rate cut implemented and the end - of - year macro - pricing almost in place, the market is gradually setting a new tone of weak supply and strong demand for aluminum prices next year. Coupled with shipping disruptions in Xinjiang and a decline in inventory arrivals, it is expected that the de - stocking process will continue, and aluminum prices will remain at a high level [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, both LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices fell. In terms of inventory, both LME and SHFE inventories increased. The traditional nickel - iron industry has stable prices, and the stainless - steel market's trading atmosphere has improved. In the new - energy industry chain, the price center has been dragged down, and the demand has weakened marginally. Fundamentals are dragging down nickel prices, which are trending weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Macro data shows a contraction in the US manufacturing sector, but an improved outlook. In China, domestic demand is weak. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons, COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1995 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 9663 tons, and BC copper increased by 301 tons. With the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, short - term caution is needed [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina trended weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2527 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decline. Aluminum trended weakly, with AL2602 closing at 21865 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decline. Aluminum alloy trended strongly, with AD2602 closing at 20945 yuan/ton, a 0.12% increase. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2790 yuan/ton. There is still downward pressure on alumina, while aluminum prices are expected to remain high [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel fell 2.22% to 14295 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 2.15% to 112530 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 360 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2622 tons. The traditional nickel - iron industry has stable prices, and the new - energy industry chain's demand has weakened. Nickel prices are trending weakly [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On December 15, 2025, compared with December 12, 2025, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 1320 yuan/ton, and the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by 1000 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 9663 tons, and the active - contract import loss increased by 977.1 yuan/ton [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River decreased by 50 yuan/ton. SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 1366 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2508 tons [3]. - Aluminum: On December 15, 2025, compared with December 12, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased. The SHFE aluminum total inventory decreased by 3635 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1.2 tons [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 850 yuan/ton. The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 2622 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2122 tons [4]. - Zinc: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.4%. The SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.44 tons [6]. - Tin: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.2%. The SHFE tin inventory increased by 526 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: The report provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of these metals' spot premiums [8][12]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the historical trends of these spreads [13][20]. - LME Inventory: Charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided, showing the historical trends of these metals' LME inventories [21][27]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the historical trends of these metals' SHFE inventories [28][33]. - Social Inventory: Charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel are provided, showing the historical trends of these metals' social inventories [34][40]. - Smelting Profit: Charts of copper concentrate index, copper smelting processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin are presented, reflecting the historical trends of these metals' smelting - related indicators [41][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [48]. - Wang Heng: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [48]. - Zhu Xi: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [49].