政府债周报（12/14）：下周新增债披露发行352亿-20251216

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - From December 15 - 21, local government bonds are scheduled to be issued worth 400.4 billion yuan, including 352.2 billion yuan of new bonds (59.6 billion yuan of new general bonds and 292.6 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 48.2 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (39.2 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 9.0 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5] - From December 8 - 14, local government bonds worth 1069.6 billion yuan were issued, including 710.5 billion yuan of new bonds (210.0 billion yuan of new general bonds and 500.5 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 359.0 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (187.4 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 171.6 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5] - As of December 14, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 20,000.00 billion yuan, the sixth - round totaled 2881.00 billion yuan, and no new disclosure was made this week. The top three provinces or municipalities with separately - planned status in the fifth - round second - batch disclosure were Jiangsu (2511.00 billion yuan), Hunan (1288.00 billion yuan), and Henan (1227.00 billion yuan) [5] - As of December 14, the special new special bonds in 2025 totaled 13656.08 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 25534.72 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three in terms of disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2440.35 billion yuan), Hubei (1377.69 billion yuan), and Henan (1325.34 billion yuan). The top three provinces or municipalities with separately - planned status in 2025 disclosure are Jiangsu (1289.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1239.28 billion yuan), and Henan (759.60 billion yuan) [6] Summary by Directory Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure: From December 8 - 14, the net supply of local government bonds was 623 billion yuan; from December 15 - 21, the forecast net supply of local government bonds is 281 billion yuan [12] - Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance: Data shows the comparison between planned and actual issuance of local government bonds in November and December, as well as the comparison of monthly issuance and net financing in recent months [15][18][21] Local Bond Net Supply - New Bond Issuance Progress: As of December 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 95.06%, and that of new special bonds was 99.32%. The calculation denominator of the issuance progress includes the 200 billion yuan of used carry - over quota, so there is a certain difference in the caliber compared with the previous progress (before November) [25] - Refinancing Bond Net Supply: As of December 14, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local government bond maturities for the year is shown in the figure, and the statistical caliber includes both issued and disclosed but not yet issued bonds [27][28] Special Bond Issuance Details - Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics: As of December 14, the special refinancing bond statistics are presented in the figure, including different rounds of issuance in various regions, and the statistical caliber includes both issued and disclosed but not yet issued bonds [31][32] - Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics: As of December 14, the special new special bond statistics are presented in the figure, showing the issuance in 2023, 2024, and 2025 in various regions, and the statistical caliber includes both issued and disclosed but not yet issued bonds [34][35] Local Bond Investment and Trading - Primary - Secondary Spread: The primary and secondary spreads of local government bonds are presented in the figure, showing the spreads of different maturities on December 7 and December 14, 2025, and the changes [38] - Regional Secondary Spread: The regional secondary spreads of local government bonds from September 5, 2025, to December 12, 2025, in different regions are presented in the figure [39] New Special Bond Investment Directions - Project Investment Direction Monthly Statistics: The latest month's statistics only consider the investment directions of issued new bonds, and do not consider the pre - issuance disclosure of new bond investment directions [41]