2026年汽车行业展望：稳内需主基调明确，出口贡献确定性增长亮点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, indicating a stable demand-driven growth trajectory for 2026, with expectations for government policies to further stimulate consumption [4][12]. Core Insights - The automotive market is expected to experience a "door-opening" effect in 2026, despite a slowdown in retail sales due to high base effects and the conclusion of local consumption subsidies [2][3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in passenger vehicle exports, with a year-on-year growth of 48.7% in November, indicating a strong potential for continued growth in 2026 [8][9]. - The introduction of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) is anticipated to enhance consumer demand, with L2 features becoming more accessible in lower-priced vehicles [10]. - The automotive industry is entering a phase of systematic restructuring, focusing on quality and service over price competition, which is expected to drive high-quality development [11]. Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The automotive market in 2026 is projected to be driven by domestic demand, with government policies aimed at optimizing consumption incentives [4][5]. - The report anticipates that the "two new" subsidy policies will continue, shifting from broad-based incentives to more targeted support for high-value durable goods [4][5]. Export Growth - November saw a record high in passenger vehicle exports, with a total of 624,000 units, reflecting a robust growth trend that is expected to persist into 2026 [8][9]. - The report notes that the export of new energy vehicles has surged, accounting for 47% of total passenger vehicle exports, indicating a strong international market presence [8]. Technological Advancements - The report emphasizes the role of smart technology in driving new consumer demand, with advancements in ADAS expected to lower costs and improve accessibility for consumers [10]. - The integration of humanoid robots with intelligent driving systems is seen as a new growth point for automotive companies, expanding the market into various sectors [10]. Industry Restructuring - The automotive industry is undergoing a deep restructuring phase, with a focus on eliminating inefficient competition and promoting technological innovation [11]. - Regulatory measures are being implemented to ensure compliance with pricing standards, which is expected to enhance market stability and encourage high-quality development [11].