港股市场策略周报：2025.12.08-2025.12.14-20251216

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a V-shaped recovery this week, initially declining before rebounding, with the Hang Seng Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index closing down by -0.45%, -0.42%, and -0.43% respectively [5][15] - Value stocks and large-cap stocks outperformed, while growth stocks weakened. The financial and information technology sectors were the only ones to see gains, increasing by 0.88% and 0.34% respectively [5][15] - The energy sector faced significant declines, dropping by 5.35% due to weak international oil prices and lowered profit expectations [15] Valuation Levels - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index stands at 83.39%, indicating that the valuation level is close to one standard deviation above the 5-year average [5] Buyback Statistics - The buyback market saw increased activity this week, with 81 companies participating, up by 6 from the previous week. The total buyback amount reached 5.219 billion HKD, an increase of 198 million HKD from last week [27] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buyback activity with a total of 3.178 billion HKD, followed by Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with 699 million HKD [27] Macro Environment Tracking - The overall profitability of the Hong Kong stock market is heavily reliant on Chinese state-owned enterprises, with over 80% of profits coming from mainland China, indicating a strong correlation with the economic conditions in China [39][40] - Key economic indicators show that China's trade value for the first 11 months of the year reached 41.21 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, with exports growing by 6.2% and imports by 0.2% [39][40] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for "practicing internal skills to cope with external challenges," highlighting a shift in focus towards quality and efficiency in economic growth [43] Sector Outlook - The report suggests a favorable outlook for sectors benefiting from policy support, including new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology. Additionally, low-valuation state-owned enterprises and local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility stocks are expected to perform well during the interest rate easing cycle [5][43]