减产力度仍较弱

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Manganese Silicon: The core view on manganese silicon is bullish. The weekly futures price trended down in a volatile manner, with a slight increase in weekly output and a continued decline in demand. Mainstream steel mills in China have entered the market for procurement. The price set by a large Hebei mill is 5,770 yuan/ton, and prices in the East China region generally hover around 5,750 yuan/ton, with the downside space gradually narrowing. The low-price quotes in the futures and spot markets have decreased, and the basis of the Inner Mongolia delivery price remains at around 220, narrowing the gap with the factory spot price. On the cost side, high-grade oxidized ores at the northern and southern ports of manganese ore have risen and remained firm, and the quotes of overseas mines have increased slightly. On the morning of December 12, the price of chemical coke dropped by 50 yuan/ton. The market is watching the subsequent spot price game of coke, and the alloy profit is poor [3]. - Silicon Iron: The core view on silicon iron is also bullish. The weekly futures price trended down in a volatile manner. The market prices of 72 and 75 silicon iron are 5,050 - 5,200 yuan/ton and 5,550 - 5,700 yuan/ton respectively for cash natural lump ex - factory, showing little change from last week. The price set by HBIS is 5,660 yuan/ton, and the steel tender prices range from 5,650 to 5,700 yuan/ton. Silicon iron output has decreased, with a factory in Ulanqab and a factory in Zhongwei suspending production. The demand from steel mills has declined, while the output of magnesium metal has slightly increased. In terms of cost and profit, the current immediate profitability of the main production areas is poor, and coal prices have shown signs of loosening. Attention is paid to the subsequent impact on the price transmission of semi - coke [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon - Manganese Ore Inventory: The total manganese ore port inventory is 451.3 tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory at Tianjin Port has slightly increased to 3.771 million tons, still significantly lower than the same period last year, and the inventory at Qinzhou Port has slightly decreased to 737,000 tons, exceeding the level of the same period last year. In terms of different varieties, the South African ore inventory at Tianjin Port is 2.478 million tons, showing a slight increase; the Gabonese ore inventory is 288,000 tons, showing a significant increase compared to the previous period and far lower than the same period last year; the Australian ore inventory is 369,000 tons, showing a slight decrease and lower than the same period last year [10][14]. - Manganese Ore Price: At Tianjin Port, the price of Gabonese lumps is 43 yuan/ton - degree, Australian lumps are 41.5 yuan/ton - degree, and South African semi - carbonate is 34.2 yuan/ton - degree. The supply - demand game in the manganese ore market has intensified, quotes have remained firm, and the transaction prices are slightly lower than the quotes [17]. - Manganese Silicon Production: As of December 12, the weekly output of silicon manganese has increased to 189,000 tons. The daily average output in Inner Mongolia has slightly increased to 13,840 tons/day; in Ningxia, it has increased to 6,190 tons/day; in Yunnan, it remains at 970 tons/day; in Guizhou, it remains at 1,735 tons/day; in Guangxi, it has slightly decreased to 1,320 tons/day [27]. - Manganese Silicon Demand: As of December 12, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises is 112,800 tons, and the weekly output of the five major steel products has decreased to 806,220 tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in the Mysteel sample data continues to decline, lower than the historical average [31]. - Manganese Silicon Price: The market price in Inner Mongolia is around 5,520 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it is 5,700 yuan/ton. The tender price set by HBIS is 5,770 yuan/ton [40]. - Chemical Coke Price: As of December 11, the ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm chemical coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa are 1,240 yuan/ton, 1,180 yuan/ton, and 1,190 yuan/ton respectively [43]. - Manganese Silicon Production Profit: The immediate profit of manganese silicon is low, and the point - to - point profit loss has intensified [47]. - Manganese Silicon Month Spread: As of December 11, the 1 - 5 month spread of manganese silicon is - 60 yuan/ton, showing continuous low - level fluctuations [52]. - Manganese Silicon Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The futures price is fluctuating, and the basis is slightly volatile. As of December 11, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid notices is 128,700 tons. Attention is paid to the subsequent recovery situation [54][55]. Silicon Iron - Silicon Iron Production: As of December 12, the weekly output of silicon iron is 106,300 tons, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous period. The daily average output in Inner Mongolia is 5,155 tons, in Qinghai it is 1,845 tons, in Ningxia it is 3,880 tons, and in Shaanxi it is 2,750 tons [70]. - Silicon Iron Demand: - From Steel Mills: The demand for silicon iron from steel mills has slightly decreased. The total consumption of silicon iron by Mysteel sample steel mills is 18,000 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year [75]. - From Magnesium Metal: The export price of magnesium metal at Tianjin Port is 2,270 US dollars/ton, and the market price is 15,650 yuan/ton, showing a slight overall decrease. The weekly output of magnesium metal is 21,357 tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period. The magnesium metal market is running weakly and stably. Affected by the previous low - price stimulation and the decline in raw material coal prices, the inquiry atmosphere in the retail market has cooled down. A small number of purchasers are making tentative offers, and most downstream buyers are hesitant and observing cautiously. There are differences in the supply - end shipments. Currently, medium - and large - scale manufacturers in the main production areas of Shaanxi have no intention to further reduce prices, while small factories are adjusting flexibly according to the market [79]. - Silicon Iron Export: As of December 11, the overseas FOB price of 75 silicon iron is 1,070 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 silicon iron is 1,020 US dollars/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period. The import volume of silicon iron in October has increased slightly compared to the previous month, while the export volume has decreased significantly compared to the previous month and is lower than the same period last year [81]. - Silicon Iron Raw Materials: As of December 11, the quotes of mainstream small - sized semi - coke in different regions have remained stable. The current prices are 820 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 920 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 810 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of oxidized iron scale is 730 yuan/ton [98]. - Silicon Iron Production Profit: As of December 11, the point - to - point profit of silicon iron is in a loss state, with significant losses in Shaanxi and Qinghai regions. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai are - 444 yuan/ton, - 565 yuan/ton, - 569 yuan/ton, and - 833 yuan/ton respectively [104]. - Silicon Iron Month Spread: As of December 11, the 1 - 5 month spread of silicon iron is - 30 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening compared to the previous period [112]. - Silicon Iron Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The futures price is fluctuating, and the basis of silicon iron is slightly volatile. As of December 11, the total of silicon iron warehouse receipts and valid notices is 67,000 tons. Attention is paid to the subsequent recovery of warehouse receipts [117]. Balance Sheet - Manganese Silicon: The balance sheet shows the supply and demand situation from June 2025 to May 2026, including total supply, production, imports, total demand, steel consumption, exports, net exports, surplus/deficit, cumulative year - on - year production growth, and cumulative year - on - year consumption growth [119]. - Silicon Iron: Similar to manganese silicon, it shows the supply - demand balance situation from June 2025 to May 2026, covering various aspects such as total supply, production, imports, total demand, domestic consumption (including crude steel and magnesium metal consumption), exports, net exports, surplus/deficit, cumulative year - on - year production growth, and cumulative year - on - year consumption growth [120].