压力与韧性双双双双

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views 2.1 Coking Coal - In 2025, China's cumulative raw coal production from January to October was 3.97 billion tons, with coking coal production at about 397 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.16%. The annual production was high in the first half and low in the second half. In 2026, domestic coking coal production is expected to have a ceiling, with an estimated output of about 479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to October 2025, coking coal imports were 94.12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. In 2026, imports are expected to rise slightly, mainly due to an increase in Mongolian coal, while US coal imports may remain at 0 due to tariffs. The estimated import volume in 2026 is 114 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [3]. - In 2025, domestic coking coal consumption is expected to be about 597 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 1.9%. In 2026, steel demand and supply are not expected to change significantly, and coking coal demand will lack drivers. The estimated consumption in 2026 is 595 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [3]. - In 2025, the coking coal inventory structure changed significantly. In the first half, inventory accumulated upstream, while in the second half, it shifted from upstream to mid - and downstream, showing a de - stocking pattern throughout the year. In 2026, coking coal consumption may not have strong drivers, domestic supply is expected to increase slightly, and the focus for imports is on the increase in Mongolian coal. The total supply is expected to increase by about 4 million tons, and the demand is difficult to absorb, resulting in a supply - demand surplus. However, supply policies will provide a bottom - support, and the price floor is expected to rise [3]. 2.2 Coke - From January to October 2025, China's cumulative coke production was 419 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In 2026, coke production is expected to decrease by about 3 million tons, with a cumulative output of 494 million tons and an actual supply of 410 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [4]. - From January to October 2025, the average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 3.3% year - on - year. In 2025, domestic coke consumption is expected to be about 399 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. In 2026, steel supply and demand have no strong drivers, and pig iron production is expected to be flat year - on - year, so domestic coke consumption will remain at 399 million tons. In terms of exports, China's coke has a price advantage, but the increase in Indonesia's production and exports has an impact. In 2026, coke exports are estimated to drop to about 7.5 million tons [4]. - In 2025, the coke inventory structure was similar to that of coking coal. In the first half, coke enterprises had high inventory pressure, and in the second half, upstream inventory shifted downstream, showing a de - stocking pattern. In 2026, there will still be surplus pressure, and inventory is expected to accumulate slightly. Overall, coke prices mainly follow coking coal. In 2026, considering semi - coke and losses, the actual supply growth rate is expected to be about - 0.6%, and total demand will be flat or slightly lower than this year, still showing a supply - demand surplus. Future attention should be paid to changes in coal cost and macro - policies [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Double - Coking Market Review - In 2025, the double - coking futures market fluctuated greatly. In the first quarter, the market expected an oversupply of domestic coal mines and weak demand, causing the futures price to decline. In the second quarter, macro - tariff shocks and the lack of production cuts by coal enterprises led to a bear - dominated market. In June, the market rebounded due to overcrowded short positions and low valuations. In July, the anti - involution policy was implemented, and coking coal prices strengthened significantly. From August to October, coking coal prices fluctuated widely at a high level under the support of over - production inspections. From November to December, the market weakened again due to an increase in Mongolian coal imports and early winter stockpiling [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Spot and Price - Coking coal spot prices first declined and then rose. In the first half, they declined in tandem with the futures market, bottomed out in late June, and rebounded in July. After September, the spot market tightened, and some coking coal varieties faced structural shortages. The strong thermal coal market also provided support, making the coking coal spot market firm [15]. - The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal fluctuated greatly throughout the year. It dropped to a low of 700 yuan/ton in the first half and then increased due to a decrease in its proportion in customs clearance, reaching a high of 1170 yuan/ton at the end of October. The long - term contract price in Q4 was 57.3 US dollars/ton, 3 US dollars higher than Q3, and is expected to increase slightly in Q1 2026. The price of imported seaborne coal fluctuated within a relatively small range, and it became cost - effective after the domestic coal price bottomed out in the middle of the year [22]. 3.2.2 Policy and Market Impact - In July 2025, the National Energy Administration launched over - production inspections, which made the market shift its expectation of coal supply to "over - production inspection." Coking coal became a benchmark for the "anti - involution" of the black industry, and actual production shrank in the second half of the year. In November, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply during the heating season, and the policy focus was adjusted temporarily. In the long term, "anti - involution + over - production inspection" will continue to have an impact [23]. - In 2021, after coal prices reached a historical high, the profit of the black industry chain gradually shifted to raw materials, promoting investment and a new capacity - expansion cycle in the coal industry. In recent years, coal industry profits have declined year by year, and new capacity has decreased significantly compared with 2021 - 2023. Currently, the coal industry may be at the end of the capacity - expansion cycle [26]. - In June 2025, coal prices dropped below the cost. Some coal mines adopted a "quantity - for - price" strategy and even over - produced, disrupting the market order. The "over - production inspection" policy ended this vicious cycle and promoted the coal industry to control capacity and production, moving towards high - quality supply [30]. 3.2.3 Production - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October 2025, the production of above - scale industrial raw coal was 3.97 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Production was high in the first half, but "anti - involution + over - production inspection" policies took effect in the second half, and production decreased year - on - year from July [31]. - By province, from January to October 2025, Shanxi's cumulative raw coal production was 1.08 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.9%, providing the largest increase in coal production this year. The production of Shanxi, Xinjiang, and Shaanxi increased steadily, while Inner Mongolia's production declined due to environmental protection and capacity integration. In 2026, Xinjiang may be the main area for production growth, and the growth rate of raw coal production may decline under the over - production inspection policy [34]. - Coking coal production was high in the first half and low in the second half of 2025. There were few supply disruptions from January to May, but production decreased in June due to factors such as work - face changes, maintenance, and full storage. After the over - production inspection in July, production remained low in the second half. In 2026, the impact of over - production inspection will be long - term, and domestic coking coal production has a ceiling, with limited growth compared to 2025 [41]. - Based on Fenwei's data, from January to October 2025, the cumulative production of coking clean coal was 397 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.16%. The annual output is expected to remain at the current level or decline slightly, with a year - on - year increase of about 3.8 million tons. In 2026, under the over - production inspection policy, coking coal production is expected to be about 479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [46]. 3.2.4 Import - In the first three quarters of 2025, global coal production increased. China's production from Q1 - Q3 was 3.57 billion tons, ranking first with a stable year - on - year growth rate of 2%. India was the second - largest coal - producing country with high - speed growth, while Indonesia actively reduced production, with a year - on - year decrease of 7.5% in the first three quarters [49]. - From January to October 2025, China imported 387.62 million tons of coal, a year - on - year decrease of 11%. Coal imports decreased significantly this year, especially in the first half, due to the lack of cost - effectiveness of imported coal after price declines. In the second half, as domestic coal prices rebounded, import profits increased, and import volume recovered but remained lower than the previous year [57]. - From January to October 2025, coking coal imports totaled 94.12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. "Mongolian coal + Russian coal" accounted for 78% of imports, while the proportion of seaborne coal decreased. Imports were low in the first half, mainly due to large decreases in Mongolian and US coal imports. In the second half, as domestic production decreased, Mongolian coal imports increased [61]. - In 2026, the main import growth is expected to come from Mongolian coal, with an estimated total import volume of 114 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% [62]. - In 2025, Mongolian coal imports were low in the first half and high in the second half. In the first half, customs clearance was significantly lower than last year due to high inventory and weak demand. In the second half, as domestic production decreased and demand recovered, customs clearance increased. In 2026, Mongolia plans to increase coal exports to China to 100 million tons, but the core factors affecting customs clearance are regulatory - area storage and terminal demand [63][66]. - In 2025, from January to October, Russian coal imports were 26.42 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4%. Russian coal enterprises' losses increased, and coal production and exports declined, but metallurgical coal exports increased. India's imports of Russian coking coal increased, diverting some of China's imports. In 2025, Russian coal imports are expected to be 32 million tons, and in 2026, it is expected to increase slightly by 1 million tons [71]. - In 2025, from January to April, US coal imports totaled 2.91 million tons. After May, imports dropped to 0 due to tariffs. In 2026, considering the un - lifted tariffs and poor cost - effectiveness, US coal imports are still difficult to resume. From January to October 2025, Canada coal imports were 9.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28%. Due to the significant decrease in US coal imports, Canada coal imports increased significantly. In 2025, Canada coal imports are expected to be about 11 million tons, and next year may remain flat or increase slightly [76]. - In 2025, from January to October, Australian coal imports were 6.23 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10%. In the first half, imported Australian coal lacked cost - effectiveness due to falling domestic coal prices. After July, import profit opportunities emerged, and imports recovered. In 2025, Australian coal imports are expected to be about 8 million tons. In 2026, considering the production increase plans of Australian coal enterprises, Australian coal imports may increase [77][82]. 3.2.5 Inventory - In the first half of 2025, coking coal inventory accumulated upstream, while downstream maintained low inventory. In the second half, inventory shifted from upstream to downstream, showing a de - stocking pattern throughout the year. The change in mid - stream inventory was one of the main reasons for the large market fluctuations this year. In 2025, coking coal winter stockpiling may be weak. Considering the growth potential of production and imports and limited demand changes, coking coal inventory may accumulate in 2026 [102]. 3.3 Coke 3.3.1 Capacity and Production - The coke industry has a low industrial concentration and is mainly composed of private enterprises, so it is more likely to trigger "capacity reduction" during industry downturns. Currently, the total in - production coking capacity in China is about 567 million tons, with about 52.49 million tons of capacity from coke ovens with a carbonization chamber height of 4.3 meters or less (including heat - recovery coke ovens) and about 514.85 million tons of capacity from ovens with a height of 5.5 meters or more. Coke ovens with a height of 4.3 meters or less are expected to be phased out, mostly by 2026. Some small - scale coking enterprises with weak anti - cycle risk capabilities may also be cleared, and there is room for capacity reduction [112]. - As of the end of November 2025, 16.82 million tons of coking capacity were eliminated, and 15.77 million tons were newly added, resulting in a net elimination of 1.05 million tons. It is expected that in 2025, 16.82 million tons of capacity will be eliminated, and 21.5 million tons will be newly added, resulting in a net increase of 4.68 million tons. In 2025, capacity reduction mainly occurred in Shandong, while new capacity was concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi [115]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October 2025, China's cumulative coke production was 419 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.3%. This year, coking enterprises had poor profitability but higher average profits than last year, with medium - to - high production levels. In 2026, considering the possible continued low profitability of coking enterprises and the lack of demand drivers, coke production is expected to remain flat or decline slightly [122]. 3.3.2 Export - From January to October 2025, China's total coke exports were 6.22 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 22%. The main export destinations were Indonesia, Japan, India, and Malaysia. China's coke still has a price advantage, but the increase in Indonesia's production and exports has impacted China's export market. In 2026, China's coke exports are estimated to be about 7.5 million tons [125]. 3.3.3 Inventory - In 2025, coke production - end inventory gradually decreased, while steel mills had sufficient inventory throughout the year [131]. 3.4 Demand - From January to October 2025, the real estate market continued to decline, with a 19.8% decrease in new housing starts and a 1.7% year - on - year decrease in fixed - asset investment. Infrastructure investment decreased by 0.1%, manufacturing investment increased by 2.7%, and real estate development investment decreased by 14.7%. From January to October, cumulative steel exports were 97.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. This year, the main story of steel demand was exports. In 2026, steel demand is expected to change little from this year, and attention should be paid to the impact of overseas policies on direct and indirect exports [141]. - From January to October 2025, China's crude steel production was 818 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 3.3% year - on - year, and hot metal production was mostly at a high level compared to the previous year. In 2026, steel supply and demand are not expected to change significantly, and pig iron production is expected to be similar to this year [144]. 3.5 Balance Sheet 3.5.1 Coking Coal - In 2026, coking coal production is expected to be about 479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Imports are expected to recover slightly, mainly due to an increase in Mongolian coal