贵金属年报

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the weakening of US economic indicators and the government shutdown increased economic uncertainty, supporting precious metal prices. The trading logic of precious metals kept changing, leading to price increases and differentiation, with silver outperforming gold and the gold - silver ratio being repaired [1][65]. - Looking ahead, the reshaping of the global trade pattern has damaged the US dollar's credit, and the long - term logic for gold and silver remains unchanged. In 2026, the Fed will still be in a rate - cut cycle, and the weakening US dollar index will support the financial attribute premium of precious metals. Silver, with its "strategic resource + financial attribute + industrial attribute" triple - drive, is expected to continue to rise with high volatility and outperform gold [1][65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - External and Internal Markets: Both New York gold and silver and Shanghai gold and silver showed an overall upward - trending and volatile pattern in 2025. New York silver and Shanghai silver had greater increases than their gold counterparts. As of December 11, New York gold closed at $4258.30 per ounce with a 52.86% annual increase, and New York silver closed at $62.20 per ounce with a 101.40% increase. Shanghai gold closed at 956.40 yuan per gram with a 52.39% increase, and Shanghai silver closed at 14373.00 yuan per kilogram with an 88.75% increase [6][7]. - Five Trading Phases: The trading logic of the precious metal market in 2025 can be divided into five phases: from January to March, driven by risk - aversion sentiment; from April, affected by tariff policies; from June to September, focused on the repair of the gold - silver ratio and industrial attributes; from September to November, driven by rate - cut expectations; from November onwards, influenced by silver supply - demand relationships [9][10][12][13]. - Gold - Silver Ratio: The gold - silver ratio continued to rise at the beginning of the year and then gradually repaired. Currently, it has returned to near the lowest level since 2020, and the ratios in domestic and foreign markets are gradually converging [17]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - US Economic Fundamentals - GDP: The release of the Q3 2025 US GDP data was postponed. The Q2 real GDP annualized growth rate was 3.8%, and the Q3 forecasted growth rate was 3.9% [19]. - PMI: In November, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.2%, indicating accelerated contraction, while the service PMI was 52.6%, continuing to expand. However, the employment index in both sectors was in a contraction state [23][24]. - Inflation: Both CPI and PCE indices fluctuated but showed a cooling trend overall. In September, CPI and core CPI were lower than expected, and PCE and core PCE both increased by 2.8% year - on - year [26][28]. - Employment: In September, non - farm employment increased by 119,000. In November, ADP employment decreased by 32,000, but subsequent data such as challenger job cuts and initial jobless claims alleviated market concerns [32]. - US Dollar Index: The US dollar index first declined and then fluctuated at a low level. In the short term, it was driven by economic data and Fed policy expectations, and in the long term, it was affected by fiscal sustainability and global monetary policy differentiation. Overall, the long - term trend may be weak [37][38]. - Tariff Policy: Tariff policy changes in 2025 can be divided into four stages: full - scale tariff increases from January to March, the establishment of a "reciprocal tariff" system in April, negotiation and adjustment from May to October, and partial adjustments from November to December. The impact of tariffs on precious metal prices weakened in the second half of the year [39][44]. - Fed Rate - Cut Expectations: The Fed's rate - cut path in 2025 can be divided into three stages: waiting and seeing in the first half of the year, policy turning in the third quarter due to employment data, and rate cuts and internal differences becoming public at the end of the year. The rate - cut path in 2026 is uncertain [45][48]. - Geopolitics: In 2025, the change in the global geopolitical pattern increased market uncertainty, driving up the demand for precious metals as a safe - haven. Geopolitics will remain a core variable in the precious metal market in 2026 [51][52]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Gold: In 2025, the global gold supply increased steadily, while the demand side showed significant structural differentiation. Investment demand, including ETFs and central bank purchases, was strong, while high prices suppressed traditional gold jewelry consumption [53][54]. - Silver: The silver market in 2025 continued to face a supply - demand imbalance. Supply was rigid due to factors such as mine strikes and limited recycling growth, while demand was driven by both industry (especially photovoltaics) and investment. The World Silver Association estimated a supply gap of 117 million ounces for the whole year [56][57]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the weakening US economy and changing trading logic supported precious metal prices, with silver outperforming gold. - In 2026, the long - term logic for gold and silver remains unchanged. The Fed's rate - cut cycle and the weakening US dollar will support precious metal prices. Silver is expected to continue to rise with high volatility and outperform gold due to its supply - demand situation and multiple attributes [1][65].