经济数据走弱，债市关注长期、微观

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for treasury bonds is "shock" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in November continued to weaken with a supply - demand imbalance, and the market focuses on the subsequent pro - growth policies. The pro - growth policies are expected to be mild and combined with structural adjustment policies. Service consumption and investment may be important pro - growth drivers. The bond market is desensitized to fundamentals, and there is still a risk of TL adjustment [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 November Economic Data Continued to Weaken - In November, the year - on - year industrial added value growth was 4.8% (previous value 4.9%, expected value 4.96%), the retail sales growth rate was 1.3% (previous value 2.9%, expected value 2.93%), and the cumulative fixed - asset investment growth rate from January to November was - 2.6% (previous value - 1.7%, expected value - 2.16%) [9] - The overall economic data in November was similar to the previous few months, with a weakening aggregate and a supply - strong and demand - weak structural problem. Factors such as the decline of previous policy effectiveness, the advancement of anti - involution policies, and the shift of fiscal funds affected the economy [12] 3.2 Demand - Side Analysis 3.2.1 Investment: Cumulative Investment Growth Rate Declined Further - The cumulative fixed - asset investment growth rate from January to November was - 2.6%, and the private investment growth rate was - 5.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value [15] - The cumulative growth rate of broad infrastructure was 0.13% from January to November, and the narrow infrastructure growth rate was - 1.1%. In November, the broad infrastructure growth rate was - 11.9%. However, factors favorable to infrastructure investment are accumulating, and it is expected that the infrastructure growth rate will stop falling and stabilize in Q1 next year [18][19] - The real estate data in November continued to weaken. The real estate development investment growth rate from January to November was - 15.9%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous value. Future real estate policies will focus on long - term transformation with short - term support [20] - The cumulative manufacturing investment growth rate from January to November was 2.7%, and the November growth rate was - 4.5%. It is expected that the manufacturing investment growth rate will have a low central value, optimized structure, and a low - to - high rhythm next year [26][27] 3.2.2 Consumption: Retail Sales Growth Rate Declined Accelerated - In November, the retail sales growth rate was 1.3%, and the month - on - month growth rate was - 0.42%. The decline was due to factors such as poor income expectations, the pre - emptive "Double Eleven", and the decline of the trade - in policy. Service consumption was better than commodity retail [34] - Policy support can drive the retail sales growth rate to recover in Q1 next year, but it will take a long time for the growth rate center to rise [34] 3.3 Production - Side Analysis - In November, the year - on - year industrial added value growth was 4.8%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.44%, slightly higher than the average of the past three years. The growth rate of service production decreased from 4.6% to 4.2% [35] - The increase in exports offset the weak domestic demand, maintaining the stability of industrial production. However, it is more likely that the production growth rate will gradually decline next year [39] 3.4 Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is desensitized to the weakening economic data. The long - term positive narrative and the difficulty of driving broad - money expectations are the reasons [40] - Institutional behavior led to the significant adjustment of ultra - long bonds. It is expected that TL may challenge the previous low. Suggestions for strategies include waiting for the right time to go long, holding short - hedging strategies, and observing the curve strategy [40][41]