2025年11月社零数据跟踪报告：11月社零总额同比+1.3%，只有中西药品类增速环比有所上升

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [44]. Core Insights - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, reflecting a significant decline in growth rates both year-on-year and month-on-month [10][11]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in October, indicating rising inflationary pressures [10]. - Retail sales growth for goods and dining both saw a month-on-month decline, with goods retailing growing by 1.0% year-on-year and dining income increasing by 3.2% year-on-year [11][12]. - Online retail sales from January to November 2025 totaled 144,582 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, which accounted for 31.7% of total retail sales [34]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 were 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous year and a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points [10][11]. Segment Analysis - In November, among 16 categories of goods, 7 categories (including daily necessities, tobacco and alcohol, home appliances, furniture, petroleum products, automobiles, and building materials) experienced negative growth. Only the Chinese and Western medicine category saw an increase in growth rate [17][18]. - The cultural and office supplies category and communication equipment category showed strong growth, both exceeding 11% [17]. Online Retail - Cumulative online retail sales from January to November reached 144,582 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, which is an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [34][36]. - The physical goods online retail sales amounted to 118,193 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverage, social services, and retail, particularly highlighting opportunities in the liquor industry, consumer goods, and tourism sectors due to expected policy support for domestic consumption [38][39][42].