油脂产业周报：短期缺乏利好下油脂偏弱运行-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of oils and fats. The market is in wide - range volatile operation, waiting for the US energy policy to boost the market and further news on Indonesia's B50. Due to the lack of trend drivers, short - term trading is recommended. The P05 contract may find support around 8300 yuan/ton. As the pressure in palm oil - producing areas gradually weakens, its cost - effectiveness increases, and we should wait for future improvement opportunities [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There is a game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil - producing areas. In November, Malaysian palm oil production decreased slightly, but the inventory reached the highest level in 6 years. The uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 plan persists, and there is a lack of upward momentum in quotes [1]. - The US biodiesel policy remains unclear. The final determination of US biofuel obligations, originally scheduled to be announced in November by the EPA, has been postponed, and the role of future policies in boosting the market is questionable [1]. - There is no positive trend in China - Canada talks, and there is an expectation of tight supply of rapeseed products in the future [1]. - Although the inventory of three major domestic oils and fats has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Rapeseed oil continues to reduce inventory, with relatively limited pressure [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: Short - term wide - range volatile adjustment, with the possibility of the price center rising in the medium term [16]. - Price Range: The P2605 fluctuates in the range of 8300 - 8800 yuan/ton, Y2605 in the range of 7800 - 8150 yuan/ton, and OI2605 in the range of 9000 - 9500 yuan/ton [16]. - Technical Analysis: Adopt a short - term weak unilateral thinking. For arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads [16]. - Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: The current basis is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads are expected to weaken [17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The price of soybean oil is forecasted to be in the range of 7800 - 8150 yuan/ton, rapeseed oil 9000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and palm oil 8300 - 8800 yuan/ton [19][21]. - Hedging Strategy: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refineries, and oil mills according to their inventory and procurement situations [21]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets, as well as various spreads [22][23]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: On December 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1140,000 tons, down 30,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons month - on - month, and up 180,000 tons year - on - year; rapeseed oil was 340,000 tons, down 20,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons month - on - month, and down 80,000 tons year - on - year; palm oil was 650,000 tons, down 30,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons month - on - month, and up 110,000 tons year - on - year [24]. - Negative Information: The US EPA is expected to issue the final rule on the renewable fuel standard in the first quarter of 2026. The palm oil export volume of Malaysia from December 1 - 15 decreased compared with the same period last month [25]. - Spot Transaction Information: Recent oil and fat transactions have been stable, with soybean oil transactions increasing month - on - month, and rapeseed oil and palm oil transactions decreasing slightly month - on - month [26]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and export data, progress on the re - allocation decision of US small refinery exemptions, progress in China - Canada trade negotiations, and weather information in producing areas [28][29]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Domestic Market: The overall oil and fat market was weak this week. There was a lack of upward driving force, and the US biodiesel policy was postponed again. The demand in the global oil and fat market was in doubt. The capital trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were all bearish [30]. - Basis Structure: The basis of the main oil and fat contracts continued to be weak this week [32]. - Calendar Spread Structure: The oil and fat market showed a near - strong and far - weak Back structure, which became shallower this week [32]. - Spread Structure: The spreads of soybean - palm, rapeseed - soybean, and rapeseed - palm all rebounded slightly this week [52]. 3.3.2 Overseas Market - The overseas market was weakly volatile this week. There was a lack of positive factors, and the MPOB report on palm oil was bearish. The US energy policy guidance was unclear, and the CBOT soybean oil management fund's position decreased slightly [54]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The POGO spread rebounded slightly this week, and the cost of producing biofuel from palm oil increased slightly. The BOHO spread also rebounded slightly, but the cost of producing biodiesel from US soybean oil remained at a recent low [60]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the import profit has changed slightly, and domestic buying has started after the basis turned positive [62]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Producing Areas - In November, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month, but the inventory exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure was not alleviated [64]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm Oil: With the basis turning positive, domestic buyers have started to place orders, but the transactions are difficult to improve in the off - season. In the year - end production - reduction stage in producing areas, the willingness to sell is limited, and domestic orders are not expected to increase [66]. - Soybean Oil: The arrival of raw materials in December will decline, and the crushing volume may decrease, but the overall supply is still relatively loose [66]. - Rapeseed Oil: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed has arrived, the quantity is limited. The inventory will continue to decrease. If the China - Canada relationship cannot be eased, the future supply will still be tight [66]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory of the three major oils and fats is relatively high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish. Although the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for oils and fats, the overall terminal demand remains weak [68].