贵金属年报：交易逻辑切换，长线趋势不变

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the weakening of US economic indicators and the government shutdown increased economic uncertainty, supporting precious metal prices. The trading logic of precious metals kept changing, leading to price differentiation with silver outperforming gold and the gold - silver ratio being repaired [1][64]. - In the future, under the reshaping of the global trade pattern, the long - term logic for gold and silver remains unchanged. In 2026, the Fed will still be in a rate - cut cycle, and the weakening US dollar index will support the financial attribute premium of precious metals. Silver is expected to continue rising with high volatility and outperform gold due to triple - driven factors [1][64]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - External Market (New York Gold and Silver): Since the beginning of the year, both New York gold and silver showed an overall upward - trending and volatile pattern, hitting new highs. By December 11, New York gold closed at $4258.30 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of 52.86%, and New York silver closed at $62.20 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of 101.40% [6]. - Domestic Market (Shanghai Gold and Silver): The trends of Shanghai gold and silver were basically in line with the external market. By December 11, Shanghai gold closed at 956.40 yuan per gram, with a year - to - date increase of 52.39%, and Shanghai silver closed at 14373.00 yuan per kilogram, with a year - to - date increase of 88.75% [7]. - Five Trading Stages in 2025: From January to March, the trading logic was risk - aversion, with gold leading the rise. From April, the focus was on tariff policies, causing a price correction. From June to September, it was about the repair of the gold - silver ratio and the support of the industrial attribute, with silver rising significantly. From September to November, the main logic was the interest - rate cut expectation. From November onwards, it was the supply - demand relationship of silver, which further pushed up the silver price [9][10][12][13]. - Gold - Silver Ratio: It continued to rise at the beginning of the year, then soared in April due to tariff policies, and started to repair in June. Currently, it has returned to near the lowest level since 2020, with the domestic and foreign ratios gradually converging [17]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - US Economic Fundamentals: - GDP: The release of the Q3 2025 GDP data was postponed. The Q2 2025 real GDP annualized growth rate was 3.8%. The Atlanta Fed's model predicted a 3.9% growth rate for Q3 [19]. - PMI: The manufacturing PMI in November was 48.2%, indicating an accelerating contraction. The service PMI was 52.6%, showing continued expansion but with a downward trend in the average level over the past 12 months [20][22]. - Inflation: Both CPI and PCE indices fluctuated but showed a cooling trend overall. The 9 - month CPI and core CPI were in line with or lower than market expectations. Consumer inflation expectations showed a decline in the short - term and stability in the medium - and long - term [25][27][29]. - Employment: In September, non - farm payrolls increased by 119,000. In November, ADP employment decreased by 32,000. However, subsequent data such as Challenger job cuts and initial jobless claims eased market concerns [31]. - US Dollar Index: It first declined and then fluctuated at a low level. In the short term, the strength of US economic data and the Fed's monetary policy expectations drove its movement. In the long term, US fiscal sustainability, dollar credit, and global central bank policy differentiation were the influencing factors. The long - term trend of the US dollar may be weak, which supported the gold price [35][36]. - Tariff Policy: It went through four stages: full - scale tariff increase from January to March, establishment of the "reciprocal tariff" system in April, negotiation and adjustment from May to October, and partial adjustment from November to December. The tariff policy had a greater impact on precious metal prices in the first half of the year [38][39][42][43]. - Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Expectation: The Fed's interest - rate cut path in 2025 had three stages: waiting and seeing in the first half of the year, policy turning in the third quarter due to the cooling labor market, and the implementation of the third rate cut in December with internal differences. The future interest - rate path is uncertain [44][45][47]. - Geopolitics: The US strategic adjustment and regional armed conflicts increased global uncertainty, driving up the prices of gold and silver. Global central banks' gold - buying and investment demand supported the gold price, while high gold prices suppressed gold jewelry consumption [50][51][53]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Gold: Investment demand was strong, with a significant increase in global gold ETF holdings and active physical investment. Central banks' net gold purchases in the first three quarters reached 634 tons. However, gold jewelry consumption declined, with a 19% year - on - year decline in the third quarter [51][53]. - Silver: The supply was rigid, with stagnant mine production and limited growth in recycled silver. The demand was strong, driven by both industry and investment. The industrial demand, especially from the photovoltaic industry, was the main growth engine. The World Silver Institute estimated a supply gap of 117 million ounces (about 3660 tons) in 2025 [56][57]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the weakening US economic indicators and the changing trading logic supported the precious metal prices, with silver outperforming gold. - In 2026, the Fed will continue to cut interest rates, and the weakening US dollar will support precious metals. Silver will benefit from triple - driven factors and is expected to continue rising with high volatility and outperform gold [64].