Shanghai Aijian Securities·2025-12-16 08:32Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - The data center industry has become a core incremental application scenario for the power equipment sector, directly driving demand growth and technological iteration in power equipment [3][7] - The report emphasizes the need to incorporate multi-dimensional indicators from the AI industry to accurately gauge the demand for power distribution equipment in data centers, given the capital expenditure scale and long investment return cycles in the data center sector [3][7] - The demand side is driven by capital expenditures from leading cloud providers, which serve as a direct "barometer" for short-term demand potential for power distribution equipment [3][8] Summary by Sections Demand Side - Capital expenditures from overseas cloud providers reached $99.617 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 80.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.54% [4][9] - Domestic capital expenditures from Alibaba and Tencent showed a slowdown, with Alibaba's expenditure at 31.501 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.10% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18.55% [4][14] - The report highlights that the investment rhythm of data centers is constrained by GPU supply, necessitating tracking of key supply chain data to validate demand progress [3][7] Supply Chain - Nvidia's revenue reached 362.571 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a historical peak with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 24.63% and a year-on-year growth of 62.49% [4][18] - TSMC reported revenue of 343.614 billion New Taiwan dollars in November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.5% [4][24] - The CPU price index rose to 98.20 in October 2025, while DRAM spot prices surged over 200% from $12.85 to $38.76 within two months, indicating strong server demand [4][27] Application Side - The report notes a steady increase in the number of AI models and application deployments, which directly influence the capital expenditure cycle of data centers [4][29] - The OpenRouter platform recorded a token call volume of 5.78 trillion from December 2 to December 8, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 6.62% [4][37] - The prices for tokens of models scoring over 40 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index dropped by over 50% in Q3 2025 [4][47]