2026年宏观经济与大类资产配置展望：不尽长江滚滚来

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2026, slightly down from 3.2% in 2025, indicating a continued weak recovery trend[9] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, a slight increase from 2.0% in 2025, while the Eurozone and Japan are expected to see declines in growth rates[12] - The weak U.S. dollar, which fell over 8% from January to November 2025, is anticipated to continue influencing global capital reallocation in 2026[25] China Economic Growth - China's GDP is forecasted to grow by 4.7% in real terms and 4.9% in nominal terms in 2026, supported by technology and consumption sectors[1] - Fixed asset investment in China is expected to recover, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showing signs of improvement[31] - The retail sales of consumer goods in China grew by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, indicating resilience in consumer spending[38] Asset Allocation Strategy - The recommended asset allocation for 2026 is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Cash, reflecting a preference for equities amid a weak dollar environment[1] - The bond yields are expected to fluctuate within a favorable range, while commodity prices, particularly precious metals, are projected to reach new highs[1] - Currency funds are likely to focus more on liquidity safety, resembling a substitute for demand deposits in investor asset allocation[1] Risks and Uncertainties - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policies, escalation of trade tensions, and rising fiscal security risks in major economies globally[1]