有色日报：有色普跌-20251216

Report Information - Report Title: Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals [1][2] - Report Date: December 16, 2025 [5] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Copper - Today, copper prices continued to decline with reduced positions, dropping nearly 2,000 yuan/ton from last night's high. - On the macro level, market risk appetite and liquidity decreased, pressuring copper prices. - On the industrial level, as copper prices fell, downstream industries' willingness to replenish inventory increased, supporting copper prices. - The game between long and short positions intensified, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close positions. Copper prices showed a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, and low LME inventories provided strong support. - Technically, continuously monitor the support of the 10 - day moving average [6]. Aluminum - Today, aluminum prices first declined and then rose, with continuously decreasing positions. - On the macro level, the non - ferrous sector declined across the board, but aluminum prices were relatively resilient. - On the industrial level, the basis and monthly spread remained weak, and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper provided some support. - Technically, continuously monitor the support of the 40 - day moving average [7]. Nickel - Last night, nickel prices plunged with increased positions and maintained a weak trend today. The main contract price fell below 112,000 yuan, hitting a new low for the year. - On the macro level, the non - ferrous sector weakened, and nickel's weakness was more obvious. - On the industrial level, as nickel prices weakened, the spot premium continued to strengthen, but the monthly spread showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. - Technically, nickel prices declined with increased positions, breaking through the annual low, indicating strong downward momentum [8]. Industry Dynamics Copper - After the delivery, copper prices declined, and downstream industries had some rigid - demand replenishment. However, due to the accumulation of finished product inventory in the processing sector and downstream industries' wait - and - see attitude towards copper prices, market activity had not significantly recovered, and the spot premium was at a low level [10]. Nickel - On December 16, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 111,700 - 117,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 114,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 5,500 - 5,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 400 yuan/ton [11]. Relevant Charts Copper - Figures include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14][18][19] Aluminum - Figures include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28][30][32][34] Nickel - Figures include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, and LME nickel price trend [36][38][40][43][45][48]