市场氛围好转，煤焦小幅反弹

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Coke: On December 16, the main coke contract closed at 1,514.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.34%. The position volume of the main contract was 19,800 lots, with a difference of -2,119 lots from the previous trading day. The spot market prices in Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port showed different trends. Recently, the supply and demand of coke both decreased, and the reduction in demand was more significant, resulting in a weak fundamental situation. Without direct positive news from domestic important meetings in December, the market follows the fundamental logic. Affected by both cost and demand pressures, the coke futures are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [5][35]. - Coking Coal: On December 16, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,067.5 points, with an intraday increase of 1.33%. The position volume of the main contract was 510,400 lots, with a difference of +16,390 lots from the previous trading day. The latest price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 3.0% week-on-week. Recently, the coking coal production decreased slightly, while the import of Mongolian coal increased significantly, providing limited support on the supply side. Coupled with the weakening of downstream coke production, the fundamentals have not improved significantly. However, with the market's reaction to the supply - side pressure, the long - short game in the coking coal futures has increased, and the price has started to fluctuate at a low level [6][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - Indonesia's Coal Export Tax: Indonesia plans to impose a 1% - 5% export tax on coal from 2026 to increase national fiscal revenue and optimize the tax structure without weakening its international competitiveness in coal [8]. - Stable Coking Coal Price in Linfen Anze: On December 16, the coking coal price in Linfen Anze market remained stable. The price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal was 1,500 yuan/ton. Due to the significant increase in the auction price of similar coal in the surrounding area and the reduction in regional supply, some coal washing enterprises raised their quotes to 1,600 yuan/ton, but no transactions were made [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Year - on - Year Change Compared to the Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,570 yuan/ton | 0.00% | -5.99% | -7.10% | -9.77% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,430 yuan/ton | -0.69% | -1.38% | -11.73% | -12.27% | | Coking Coal (Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port) | 1,125 yuan/ton | -3.02% | -12.11% | -4.66% | -8.91% | | Coking Coal (Australian - produced at Jingtang Port) | 1,470 yuan/ton | 0.68% | -6.37% | -1.34% | -4.55% | | Coking Coal (Shanxi - produced at Jingtang Port) | 1,650 yuan/ton | 0.00% | -3.51% | 7.84% | -2.37% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position Volume | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,514.5 | 1.34% | 1,532.0 | 1,475.0 | 16,790 | -3,806 | 19,821 | -2,119 | | Coking Coal | | 1,067.5 | 1.33% | 1,077.0 | 1,037.5 | 1,163,886 | -328,578 | 510,423 | 16,390 | [13] Related Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2020 to 2025 [15][16][17]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts display the inventory of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23]. - Other Charts: Include domestic steel - mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (coal - washing plant clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization rate) [28][30][34]. Market Outlook - The outlook for coke and coking coal is the same as the core views, with coke futures expected to fluctuate at a low level due to cost and demand pressures, and coking coal futures showing increased long - short game and low - level fluctuations [35].