银河期货花生日报-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of peanuts is expected to be relatively stable in the short term, with the current supply increasing and downstream demand remaining weak. The peanut futures will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the 03 contract still has room to decline. The spot price of peanut oil is stable, and the peanut meal has been stable recently, with good theoretical profits for oil mills from pressing [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data - Futures Disk: PK604 closed at 7914, down 90 or -1.14%, with a trading volume of 58,050 (up 13.45%) and an open interest of 31,491 (down 1.02%); PK510 closed at 8184, down 18 or -0.22%, with a trading volume of 116 (up 52.63%) and an open interest of 901 (up 6.25%); PK601 closed at 8048, down 42 or -0.52%, with a trading volume of 12,773 (down 9.72%) and an open interest of 26,137 (down 18.62%) [1]. - Spot and Basis: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7800, 8200, and 8200 respectively, all unchanged. The prices of Rizhao peanut meal, Rizhao soybean meal, peanut oil, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil were 3250, 3060, 14380, and 8400 respectively, with the soybean oil price down 40. The basis was -248, 152, 152 respectively. The import prices of Sudanese peanuts were 8600 and Senegalese peanuts were 7600, both unchanged [1]. - Spreads: The spread of PK01 - PK04 was 134 (down 48), PK04 - PK10 was -72, and PK10 - PK01 was 136 (up 24) [1]. Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut Prices: Peanut prices in Henan have declined, and those in Northeast China are weak. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.75 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Changtu, Liaoning it was 4.7 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 3.65 - 3.8 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin; in Junan, Shandong it was 3.4 yuan/jin, unchanged. Imported peanut prices were stable [3]. - Peanut Oil and By - products: Some peanut oil mills raised their purchase prices today, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 6900 - 7600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 7860 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 14500 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton. The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal dropped to 3050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the 48 - protein peanut meal was quoted at 3120 yuan/ton [3][4]. Third Part: Trading Strategy - Single - side: Contracts 03 and 05 of peanuts will fluctuate at a high level, and short - sell contract 03 on rallies [7]. - Monthly Spread: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8]. - Options: Sell the put option PK603 - P - 8200 on rallies [9]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [11][17][20].