Ping An Securities·2025-12-16 10:30Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of improving efficiency and optimizing the industry structure in the securities sector, projecting a strong performance relative to the market for 2026 [1] Market Review - The securities sector has demonstrated a prominent Beta attribute, with significant attention on the shift in funding styles. Historical analysis indicates that periods of excess returns for brokerages typically require a confluence of policy, liquidity, and market conditions [4][9] - From January to November 2025, the securities index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 12.9 percentage points, attributed to factors such as technology style preferences and the diversion of funds towards low-valuation H-shares [4][43] - Despite this, the brokerage sector achieved a notable excess return from April to August 2025, particularly H-share brokerages, which saw a cumulative increase of 43.9% for the year, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 25.4 percentage points [4][43] Fundamental Outlook - The equity market is experiencing high prosperity, with a strong certainty of profit growth. In the first three quarters of 2025, listed brokerages reported a year-on-year net profit growth of 63.4% and a revenue increase of 13.0% [4][20] - The revenue structure for the first three quarters of 2025 shows significant growth in brokerage, investment banking, and proprietary trading, with net income growth rates of 68%, 16%, and 42% respectively [4][20] - The wealth management sector is positioned to capitalize on internationalization trends, with Hong Kong emerging as a preferred fundraising destination for Chinese enterprises, leading to a 146% increase in IPO fundraising compared to the entire year of 2024 [4][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that as capital market reforms deepen, the securities industry is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, benefiting particularly head brokerages through mergers and acquisitions [4][20] - Recommended stocks include CITIC Securities and CICC, which are expected to benefit from their strong comprehensive service capabilities and balanced business structures [4][20] - Other notable mentions include Guosen Securities, Industrial Securities, and Dongfang Securities, which are anticipated to perform well due to their advantages in financial products and services [4][20] Valuation Insights - The current price-to-book (P/B) ratio for the securities industry stands at 1.35x, which is below the historical average of 1.71x, indicating potential for valuation recovery [4][50] - The report highlights that the industry P/B valuation is at the 27.7% historical percentile, suggesting that there is room for improvement in valuations relative to historical performance [4][50]