银河期货航运日报-20251216

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures Container Shipping Index (European Line) Daily Report [1][3] - Report Date: December 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Jia Ruilin [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The SCFIS released yesterday was lower than market expectations, causing a slight downward adjustment in EC2512. The market continues to speculate on the January freight rate trend and peak, with the EC market maintaining a volatile trend. Attention is focused on the January first - week quotes from MSK [5]. - The spot freight rate situation has improved recently, and shipping companies have started to announce price increases for January. There are still price - increase expectations for the first week of January. The demand is expected to gradually improve from December to January, while the supply shows different trends in January and February 2026. The short - term market will remain highly volatile, and the key to future price expectations lies in the January price adjustment rhythm. Geopolitically, the second phase of the Israel - Palestine peace talks has begun, and the statements of shipping companies and the post - Spring Festival resumption of shipping schedules need to be observed [6]. Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - On December 16, 2025, EC2602 closed at 1686.8 points, down 3.39% from the previous day. On December 12, the SCFI European Line was reported at $1538/TEU, up 9.8% month - on - month. The latest delivery settlement price of the EC2512 contract on Monday was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% month - on - month, lower than market expectations, leading to a downward adjustment in the EC2512 contract [5]. - In terms of spot freight rates, shipping companies have announced price increases for January. The demand from December to January is expected to improve, and the supply shows different trends in January and February 2026. The January capacity has increased slightly by 3% compared to the previous week's schedule, mainly due to the addition of 4 ships and 2 suspended ships. The February capacity has decreased by 3.7% compared to the previous week, mainly due to the PA Alliance adding 3 suspended ships and 2 large ships of about 24,000 TEU [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: For the EC2602 contract, some long positions can be considered for partial profit - taking and partial holding. Attention should be paid to the subsequent price announcements by shipping companies and the improvement rhythm of cargo volume [7]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. Group 5: Industry News - ONE announced a new east - west route network arrangement, which will be officially implemented in April 2026, still maintaining the route via the Cape of Good Hope, and FE3 will no longer call at Shanghai [10]. - According to foreign media reports, MSC has made an acquisition offer to ZIM [11]. - US media reported that the White House privately rebuked Netanyahu for violating the cease - fire agreement [12]. - The Indonesian Finance Minister plans to impose a tariff on coal exports starting from January 1, 2026 [13]. Group 6: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, the SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for various routes [15][17][22][23]