2026年海外市场展望：先抑后扬

Group 1 - The 2026 US economy is expected to follow a "first suppress then rise" rhythm, influenced by midterm elections and monetary policy [3][8] - The midterm elections will see intensified political competition, with Trump likely to focus on maintaining support for large tech companies through tax incentives while also addressing issues for small businesses and low-income groups [3][11] - The monetary policy is anticipated to be cautious until the Fed chair transition in May 2026, with a potential shift to a more accommodative stance thereafter [3][26] Group 2 - Investment in the AI sector has been a significant driver of the US economy, with major tech companies' capital expenditures expected to slow down in 2026, leading to a cooling market sentiment [3][33] - The capital expenditures of the seven major tech companies are projected to be over 50% of their operating cash flow, with Amazon reaching over 90%, indicating a need for revenue growth to sustain such investments [3][38] - The geopolitical landscape remains turbulent, with ongoing pressures from the midterm elections potentially prompting the Trump administration to seek breakthroughs in the Russia-Ukraine situation [3][41] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of asset allocation strategies, focusing on opportunities within the US AI sector and European defense and manufacturing industries [3][45] - The anticipated economic growth from the "Great Beautiful Act" is projected to increase GDP by 0.9% in 2026, supporting the overall economic outlook [3][22] - The report suggests that traditional industries and small businesses may benefit more from interest rate declines compared to large tech firms, which are less sensitive to rate changes [3][32]