养殖产业链日报：供需宽松-20251216

Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply side of soybeans has significant supporting factors, but the demand side has weak recovery, with short - term prices in a volatile pattern and potential for further decline if import soybean near - month auction volume drops [1] - The selling pressure on corn prices is gradually decreasing, and after the loosening of the hoarding sentiment, the supply will increase and suppress short - term price increases, but the worst stage is over, and it's worth watching for buying opportunities around New Year's Day [1] - Egg prices are stabilizing, with short - term supply remaining loose and demand lacking highlights during the double - festival stocking period. There may be a chance of price recovery after the festival if there is over - culling, but short - term prices are expected to be volatile [2] - The pig - breeding industry has been in the capacity - reduction stage since July 2025. The supply is still loose at present, with large short - term supply pressure, but there is a possibility of price increase for far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [2] Group 2: Industry Situation Details Soybeans - On the supply side, large - scale buyers' purchase prices are rising steadily, the purchase price of China Grain Reserves Corporation provides a bottom support, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the supply of high - quality soybeans in the south is decreasing [1] - On the demand side, downstream consumption recovery is weak, the actual trading atmosphere has not improved with price trends, and enterprises in sales areas mainly replenish inventory based on rigid demand [1] Corn - The average sales progress in Northeast China is about 38% according to three - party data, with the fastest being 42% from the National Grain and Oil Information Center. Heilongjiang is at 50%, Jilin at 36%, Liaoning at 44%, and Inner Mongolia at 36% [1] Eggs - Egg spot prices are stabilizing, but the upward driving force is weakening as prices approach the cost line. Short - term supply is loose, demand during the double - festival stocking period is not prominent, and the overall number of culled chickens is still much higher than the same period in previous years [2] Pigs - Since July 2025, the pig - breeding industry has been reducing capacity. By the end of October, the national inventory of breeding sows dropped to 39.9 million, a month - on - month decline of 1.1%, and the capacity reduction accelerated in October [2] - The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in December increased by about 3.2% month - on - month, and the overall slaughter pressure is still large under the pessimistic industry expectation [2]