棉花、棉纱日报-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market fundamentals are strong due to factors such as fast sales progress of 2025/26 new cotton, potential reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area, and expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity. With the easing of Sino - US relations and tariff cuts, there is a positive outlook for textile exports. Technically, cotton has increased in volume and broken through the previous platform, suggesting potential for future price increases. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The outlook for US cotton is likely to be range - bound, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish. For now, it is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - Futures Market: The closing prices of most cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts declined. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13,940 with a decrease of 60, and the CY01 contract closed at 19,855 with a decrease of 40. Trading volumes and open interest also changed, with some contracts showing decreases and others increases [2]. - Spot Market: The CCIndex3128B (cotton) spot price was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 68, and the CY IndexC32S (cotton yarn) was 20,830, unchanged. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FC Index, etc., also had different changes [2]. - Price Spreads: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads changed. For instance, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was - 5, down 15, and the CY01 - CF01 spread was 5,915, up 20 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of December 13, 2024, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 10.1% complete, up 4.8 percentage points month - on - month but 2.1 percentage points slower than the same period last year. The slow start was due to late harvests of previous crops in some areas. Bahia has started large - scale planting, and Mato Grosso is expected to reach its peak in January [4]. - For the week ending November 20, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 33,700 tons, down 21% week - on - week and 14% from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipping volume was 27,400 tons, up 7% week - on - week but 15% lower than the previous four - week average [4]. - As of November 18, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 21.36%, down 0.7 percentage points week - on - week [4]. Trading Logic - Fundamentals are positive with fast sales of new cotton, potential reduction in Xinjiang planting area, and expected expansion of textile mills' production capacity. The easing of Sino - US relations and tariff cuts are also beneficial for textile exports [5]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish [6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Wait and see [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Zhengzhou cotton is in a bullish trend, but the pure cotton yarn market has weak trading, mainly driven by rigid demand. Weaving mills' inventories are high, but some are replenishing stocks near the year - end. Cotton yarn prices were stable to weak last week, and some spinning mills with high inventory are reducing prices. Xinjiang spinning mills maintain high operating rates due to price advantages, while those in the inland areas have seen a decline. Attention should be paid to Zhengzhou cotton trends and downstream stock replenishment [8]. - The trading of cotton grey fabrics is generally dull, with only partial areas having restocking. Some weaving mills are operating on small orders, and order processing fees are low. Purchases are mainly small - scale, and inventory reduction is limited [8]. Third Part: Options - Option Contract Data: On November 24, 2025, for example, the CF601C13400.CZC option contract had a closing price of 183, up 71%, and an implied volatility of 6.7% [10]. - Volatility: The 10 - day HV of cotton was 6.4492, with a slight increase. The implied volatilities of different option contracts varied, such as 6.7% for CF601 - C - 13400, 11.4% for CF601 - P - 13000, and 17.8% for CF601 - P - 12400 [10]. - Option Strategy: Wait and see [12]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The content mainly includes various charts such as the 1% tariff - adjusted domestic and foreign cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, and spreads between cotton yarn and cotton contracts for different months. These charts show historical price data trends from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16]