聚酯链日报：PTA供需格局边际转强，关注近期估值反弹空间-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand pattern of PTA is marginally strengthening, and attention should be paid to the recent valuation rebound space. The prices of PX and PTA may continue a mild upward trend due to positive factors on the demand side, but the supply - side pressure may limit the increase. Specifically, PX prices may rise slightly, and PTA prices may increase [1][2][43][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On December 15, the PX main contract closed at 6,784.0 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 220.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,628.0 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 18.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the cost side, on December 15, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 61.22 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 57.53 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, on December 15, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 1,057.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average trading volume was 806.53 million meters [2]. - On the supply side, the PX plant operating rate is expected to remain high with limited plant changes. The PTA operating rate is high, and there are no large - scale maintenance plans in the near future, reducing the overall supply - surplus risk compared to expectations. The terminal textile industry has average operating conditions, and the polyester industry maintains its operation. Positive factors on the demand side may drive the prices of PX and PTA to continue a mild upward trend [2]. - On the inventory side, the PTA factory inventory level is expected to be moderate with controllable pressure but no significant inventory - reduction motivation. The current inventory status has a neutral impact on prices. If the demand side continues to strengthen, inventory may be gradually digested, providing marginal support for PTA prices [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - The 15 - day moving average (MA15) of the trading volume of the China Light Textile City has been rising, from 725.4 million meters on December 8 to 806.53 million meters on December 15, indicating a significant increase in terminal demand and active downstream textile industry activities [4]. - As of December 11, 2025, the inventory of polyester staple fiber was 4.41 days, at a low level, possibly driven by demand. Among the inventories of polyester filament, DTY was 23.9 days, FDY was 22.2 days, and POY was 16.7 days, with the overall filament inventory being high. In the short term, the prices of polyester products will mainly fluctuate and may rise slightly. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and inventory changes [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price was 6,784 yuan/ton on December 15, up 0.38% from December 12. The main contract trading volume decreased by 7.46%, and the main contract open interest increased by 5.41%. PX spot prices in the Chinese main port CFR and South Korea FOB remained unchanged. The PX basis decreased by 41.94% [5]. - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4,628 yuan/ton on December 15, up 0.30% from December 12. The main contract trading volume decreased by 38.09%, and the main contract open interest decreased by 13.22%. PTA spot prices in the Chinese main port CFR remained unchanged. The PTA basis decreased by 350.00%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 13.33%, the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 66.67%. The PTA import profit decreased by 0.19% [5]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6,098 yuan/ton on December 15, up 0.40% from December 12. The main contract trading volume decreased by 26.42%, and the main contract open interest decreased by 0.30%. The short - fiber spot price in the East China market remained unchanged. The PF basis decreased by 13.26%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.88%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 33.33%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 24.53% [5]. - Other industrial chain prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged on December 15 compared to December 12 [5]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha, PX, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester staple fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged, while the PTA processing spread decreased by 0.81% [6]. - Light Textile City trading volume: On December 15, the total trading volume was 1,057 million meters, a 4.97% increase from December 12. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 831 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 227 million meters [6]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on December 15 compared to December 12 [6]. - Inventory days: As of December 11, 2025, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber decreased by 30.88% compared to December 4, the inventory days of polyester POY increased by 2.45%, the inventory days of polyester FDY increased by 4.72%, and the inventory days of polyester DTY decreased by 1.65% [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On December 15, Federal Reserve officials had different views on monetary policy. Trump said he preferred to choose former Fed governor Warsh or White House National Economic Council Director Hassett to succeed the Fed chairman. The People's Bank of China stated that it would flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. On December 12, the Fed reappointed 11 regional Fed presidents, alleviating concerns about personnel uncertainty. On December 12, informed sources said that the US, Ukraine, and the EU would hold a meeting in Paris on Saturday regarding the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand - Demand - On December 15, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 1,057.0 million meters, a 4.97% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 831.0 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 227.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on PX and PTA main futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, short - fiber main futures and basis, PX capacity utilization, PTA futures spreads, short - fiber futures spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester staple fiber and filament sales, China Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [9][11][13][14][16][18][21][23][26][28].