有色金属日报-20251216

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward/downward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward/downward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating rules [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating rules [1] - Zinc: ★★★, showing a clearer upward/downward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating rules [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, meaning a clearer upward/downward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating rules [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating rules [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating rules [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various non - ferrous metals are diverse, with different trends and influencing factors for each metal. Some metals are in a state of price adjustment, while others are affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and policy [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper's open interest dropped to the MA10 moving average. The current copper price was 91,700 yuan, with a 125 - yuan discount in Shanghai and a 150 - yuan premium in Guangdong. The adjustment range may expand to the integer level if the open interest drops below 600,000 lots. It's recommended to reduce long positions and wait and see [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today, with spot discounts in East, Central, and South China widening. The medium - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is still oscillating upward, but short - term support at the 40 - day line should be watched. The price of Baotai ADC12 dropped by 100 yuan to 21,000 yuan. Alumina has a supply - surplus situation, and the spot price is more likely to fall [3] Zinc - The LME zinc's term structure changed, with the 0 - 3 - month spot shifting from premium to a 31.61 - dollar discount per ton. There is a phased cross - market reverse arbitrage space. The decline of Shanghai zinc is expected to be less than that of the outer market, and support is seen at 22,800 yuan per ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel dropped to a new low for the year. Stainless - steel spot trading was extremely light, and prices generally declined. With inventory accumulation and提货 pressure, the "price - for - volume" strategy has limited de - stocking effects. It's advisable to short on rebounds [7] Tin - Shanghai tin's open interest decreased, and the price decline reached the MA10 moving average. The domestic spot tin price dropped by 3,600 yuan to 320,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the open - interest reduction range and the MA10 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is oscillating at a high level. The overall inventory has decreased. The futures price is strongly oscillating, and the fundamentals are generally strong, putting short - sellers at a disadvantage [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is weak, with the price dropping near the northwest cost line. There is an expectation of production reduction in the northwest due to weather and pollution. Before actual production reduction, it will maintain a low - level oscillation [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose to 60,000 yuan per ton during the day and then gave back some gains. The spot price is stable. There is an expectation of a significant price increase, but it has not been confirmed. It is in a game between strong policy - driven clearing expectations and weak reality, with a high - level oscillation trend [11]