Guohai Securities·2025-12-16 11:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Insights - The coal mining industry is experiencing a mixed supply and demand scenario, with production and imports declining, while coal prices are on the rise due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [14][21] - The report highlights the resilience of major coal companies, emphasizing their strong cash flow and profitability, which positions them well for future growth despite market fluctuations [14] Supply Side Summary - Coal production in November 2025 was 430 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, but the decline was less severe than in October [20][21] - Coal imports fell by 19.87% year-on-year in November, with a total of 44.05 million tons imported, reflecting supply chain disruptions and high base effects from the previous year [9][28] - Overall coal supply in November showed a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, but the rate of decline narrowed compared to October [28] Demand Side Summary - The demand for coal is being negatively impacted by a 4.2% year-on-year decline in thermal power generation in November, contrasting with a 7.3% increase in October [10][29] - Chemical and metallurgical sectors are showing positive contributions to coal consumption, with chemical industry coal usage increasing by 8.22% year-on-year [12][41] Inventory Summary - Power plants are replenishing their coal inventories, with significant increases noted in November, while upstream coal inventories remain low [13][14] - The inventory levels for coking coal are also rising but are still considered low overall [13] Price Summary - The average price of thermal coal at northern ports rose to 822 RMB per ton in November, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% [13] - The report anticipates that coal prices may stabilize due to seasonal demand and supply adjustments, despite the ongoing fluctuations [14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on robust coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [15][14] - It highlights the investment value of coal stocks due to their high dividends and cash flow characteristics, recommending a strategic approach to investing in the sector [14]