港股市场策略周报：近期港股微观流动性存在什么问题？-20251216

Market Overview and Outlook - The recent Hong Kong stock market has not stabilized following overseas interest rate cuts, primarily due to two internal liquidity issues: the implementation of new public fund benchmark regulations, which may lead to selling of some over-allocated Hong Kong stocks, and a significant demand for funds in the market [2][4] - Despite these narratives, the overall impact on the market is considered limited, with attention on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data that could reignite rate cut expectations if significantly below forecasts, potentially improving market sentiment [2][4] Industry and Index Recommendations - Recommended sectors include Internet (CSI 30), Non-ferrous Metals (CSI 931947), and Non-bank financials (CSI 931024) [4][17] - The Internet sector is highlighted for its strong cloud revenue growth and low valuations following recent declines [17] - The Non-ferrous Metals sector is expected to benefit from an impending interest rate cut cycle and global inflation trends [17] - The insurance sector is poised to gain from increased equity positions and expanding interest margins [17] Recent Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced more declines than gains last week, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.42% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.43% [18][21] - The market saw limited sector performance, with only the financial and information technology sectors showing gains, while the energy sector led the declines [21][18] Micro Liquidity Analysis - The average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached 2,071 million HKD, reflecting a 203 million HKD increase week-on-week, placing it in the 72.8 percentile over the past three years [25] - The 14-day RSI for the Hang Seng Index is at 42.6, indicating a neutral sentiment [27] Fund Flow Analysis - Southbound funds recorded a net outflow of 3.4 billion HKD for the first time in six months, while local and foreign funds saw simultaneous net inflows [30][37] - Local ETFs experienced a net inflow of 5.1 billion HKD last week, totaling 45.9 billion HKD year-to-date [31] - Foreign funds through ETFs net bought 2.63 million USD, with cumulative net inflows since 2024 reaching 14.4 billion USD [34] Valuation Levels - The current P/E ratio for the Hang Seng Index is 11.5, compared to a three-year median of 10.1 and an eight-year average of 10.1 [41] Funding Demand - As of December 12, the funding demand for Hong Kong-listed companies in December is estimated at 18.6 billion HKD, with IPO and placement needs at 9.8 billion and 8.1 billion HKD, respectively [45]