化工日报-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ (suggesting a complex short - term trend) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short - term balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand fundamentals of the chemical industry are complex, with different products showing different trends. Some products face supply pressure, while others are affected by demand changes and cost factors. Overall, the market is volatile, and different products require different investment strategies based on their specific supply - demand situations [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had a narrow - range consolidation. Polypropylene's profit inversion led to more plant shutdowns, increasing the expected external supply of propylene from some integrated enterprises. Downstream demand decreased, and the market transaction center moved down slightly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures had a weak consolidation. For polyethylene, the supply was expected to increase, and downstream demand was weak. For polypropylene, production was expected to increase slightly, and short - term demand was also weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene futures fluctuated. The import pressure decreased slightly, and the port inventory was stable. The supply - demand pressure might be relieved, and it was expected to fluctuate at a low level. A mid - line long - spread arbitrage could be considered on dips [3] - Styrene futures had a narrow - range fluctuation. The cost side had no obvious positive drive, and although supply and demand were expected to increase, the inventory build - up expectation made it difficult to boost prices [3] Polyester - The prices of PX and PTA declined slightly due to the falling oil price. Their weekly loads were stable, while polyester's load decreased slightly. PX was expected to be strong in the mid - line, and PTA's processing margin was expected to recover [4] - The price of ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level due to supply contraction expectations. However, it was still under pressure in the new year due to expected inventory build - up and new plant commissions [4] - Short - fiber's load and inventory decreased simultaneously, and its long - term supply - demand pattern was relatively good. Bottle - chip demand weakened, and its cost was the main driving factor [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's 05 contract fluctuated strongly. The port was de - stocking, but it was expected to build inventory significantly if the unloading speed recovered. The short - term supply - demand pattern was difficult to improve significantly [5] - Urea futures had a narrow - range oscillation. The supply was at a high level, and the industry's supply - demand was loose, with prices maintaining a range - bound oscillation [5] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC prices rose. Supply remained high, and although exports improved, domestic demand was weak. It was expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short term [6] - Caustic soda prices had a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply pressure was large, and it was expected to follow macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to energy - consumption regulations [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rose. The supply pressure was large, and it was expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short term [7] - Glass was operating weakly. The industry was de - stocking, but it was difficult to maintain this trend. The long - term cold - repairing might continue due to profit compression [7]