软商品日报：供需宽松下震荡，远月价格或存低估-20251216

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend due to the adjustment of the planting area structure in the far - month, but the upside potential of the near - month is limited [1] - The sugar market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state due to abundant supply both internationally and domestically [2] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - On the 15th, the sales basis of machine - picked cotton 3129B in Aksu, Xinjiang (within 2.7% impurity) for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was 910 - 980 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14750 - 14900 yuan/ton, up about 50 yuan/ton from last Friday [1] - In Bortala, Xinjiang, the basis transaction price of new machine - picked cotton (Grade 31, double 29, within 2.7% impurity) for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was 980 - 1080 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14900 - 15100 yuan/ton, up 50 - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Sugar - StoneX's third revised report on the global sugar supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 season predicts a sugar surplus of 3.7 million tons, and the estimated sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil for the 2026/27 season is 41.5 million tons, which is lower than the previous estimate [2] - As of December 15, in the 2025/26 season in India, 479 sugar mills were in operation, 6 more than the same period last year, and the sugar production was 7.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.72 million tons or 28.34% [2] - With abundant international supply, all northern beet sugar mills in China are in operation, and southern cane sugar mills are gradually starting production. The domestic sugar market supply is abundant, and sugar prices are under downward pressure [2]