原油日报：原油震荡下行-20251216

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the organization's overall oil production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing producers will pause production increases in Q1 2026. With the end of the peak oil demand season, EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil inventories was less than expected, while the increase in refined oil inventories exceeded expectations. The US crude oil production is near its historical high. Amid geopolitical factors and supply - demand imbalances, the crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus situation, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and 8 producers will pause Q1 2026 production increases. The end of the demand peak, along with US inventory and production data, geopolitical factors like the US - Venezuela stand - off and the attempt to promote a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, contribute to a supply - surplus market. Saudi Aramco set the lowest price for "Arab Light Crude" sold to Asia in January 2026 since January 2021 [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2601 fell 1.51% to 430.5 yuan/ton, with a low of 427.3 yuan/ton and a high of 435.4 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 5006 to 18878 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA raised the Q4 2025 US crude oil production by 40,000 barrels per day to 1.386 million barrels per day, non - OPEC+ supply by 50,000 barrels per day, and global crude oil production by 300,000 barrels per day. It also lowered the Q4 2025 global oil demand by 90,000 barrels per day. IEA adjusted the 2025 and 2026 global oil demand growth rates upwards and the supply growth rates downwards. OPEC maintained the 2025 and 2026 global oil demand growth rates [3]. Supply and Demand - OPEC's October crude oil production was reduced by 21,000 barrels per day to 2.8481 million barrels per day, and November production decreased by 1,000 barrels per day to 2.848 million barrels per day. OPEC+ November production increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of December 5 increased by 38,000 barrels per day to 1.3853 million barrels per day. US oil product four - week average supply increased to 2.0417 million barrels per day, with gasoline and diesel demand showing different trends [4].