Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Report's Core View The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged with a weak trading atmosphere. The upward space of plastics in the near future is expected to be limited. Due to the possible new plastic production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual end of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 16, new maintenance devices such as the second phase of HDPE of Zhonghan Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE remained at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has decreased. There is new plastic production capacity put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, and traders are cautious about the future market, so plastics' upward space is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated, closing at 6543 yuan/ton, down 0.50%. The position increased by 21355 lots to 510143 lots [2] - Spot: Most of the PE spot market declined, with a price change range of - 200 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6400 - 6620 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8050 - 8780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6770 - 7940 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 16, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 84%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE remained at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 720,000 tons week - on - week, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fell to $60/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [4]
塑料日报：震荡运行-20251216
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-16 11:31