PP日报：震荡运行-20251216

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, there is no further macro - level positive news, the spot trading atmosphere is light, and it is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future. Due to the possibility of new PP production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, which is at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 16, there were few changes in maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 24% [1] - Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of recent years. On the cost side, some previously faulty oil fields in Iraq have resumed production. The United States is still actively promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine has made certain compromises on security guarantees. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has continued to decline, and crude oil prices have fallen [1] - In terms of supply, the 400,000 - ton/year new production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract fluctuated with increasing positions, with a minimum price of 6,230 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,278 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,256 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.13%. The open interest increased by 11,398 lots to 497,942 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions have declined. The drawstring PP is quoted at 5,980 - 6,330 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On December 16, new maintenance devices such as the second - phase HDPE of Sinopec - SK Wuhan Petrochemical were added, and the operating rate of plastics dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [4] - Demand side: As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, which is at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Tuesday, the early - morning inventory of petrochemicals decreased by 30,000 tons to 720,000 tons week - on - week, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 02 dropped to $60/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [6]