Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate decreased slightly to 79.43%, still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The downstream operating rate declined slightly, and orders for downstream products were poor. In terms of exports, PVC exchanged price for volume, and last week's export orders rebounded, but the Indian market price was also falling, and Indian demand was limited. Last week, social inventory increased slightly and remained high, with significant inventory pressure. In 2025 from January to November, the real estate market was still in the adjustment stage, with large year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities rebounded month-on-month but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The real estate market needed time to improve. New production capacity of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua was newly put into production. The rebound of bulk commodities such as coking coal boosted market sentiment, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor-alkali decreased, the operating expectations of some production enterprises declined, but the production decline was limited, and the futures warehouse receipts remained at a high level. The quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China in December generally decreased, and the Indian market price was also falling, with limited Indian demand. December was the traditional off-season for domestic PVC demand, and the recent upward space for PVC was limited [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 79.43%, still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The downstream operating rate declined slightly, and orders for downstream products were poor. In terms of exports, PVC exchanged price for volume, and last week's export orders rebounded, but the Indian market price was also falling, and Indian demand was limited. Last week, social inventory increased slightly and remained high, with significant inventory pressure. In 2025 from January to November, the real estate market was still in the adjustment stage, with large year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities rebounded month-on-month but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The real estate market needed time to improve. New production capacity of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua was newly put into production. The rebound of bulk commodities such as coking coal boosted market sentiment, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor-alkali decreased, the operating expectations of some production enterprises declined, but the production decline was limited, and the futures warehouse receipts remained at a high level. The quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China in December generally decreased, and the Indian market price was also falling, with limited Indian demand. December was the traditional off-season for domestic PVC demand, and the recent upward space for PVC was limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The PVC2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 4,571 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,675 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,669 yuan/ton, below the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 1.99%. The position increased by 100,545 lots to 849,431 lots [2] Basis - On December 16, the mainstream price of calcium carbide method PVC in East China rose to 4,395 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,669 yuan/ton. The current basis was -274 yuan/ton, weakening by 35 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by devices such as Ningbo Zhenyang and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 79.43%, continuing to decline slightly and remaining at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. In terms of new production capacity, Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons, Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons, and Jiaxing Jiahua with 300,000 tons were all put into production in the second half of the year [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market was still in the adjustment stage, with large year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, construction, and completion. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%. From January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%; among which, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 8.1%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, and the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 11.2%. From January to November, the new construction area of housing was 534.57 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5%; among which, the new construction area of residential housing was 391.89 million square meters, a decrease of 19.9%. From January to November, the construction area of housing by real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. From January to November, the completion area of housing was 394.54 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%; among which, the completion area of residential housing was 281.05 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1%. The overall real estate market needed time to improve. As of the week of December 14, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities rebounded by 13.80% month-on-month but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies could boost the sales of commercial housing [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of December 11, the social inventory of PVC increased by 0.03% month-on-month to 1.0593 million tons, a 27.63% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly and remained high (Longzhong increased the social warehousing capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [6]
PVC日报：震荡上行-20251216
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-16 11:23