银河期货农产品日报-20251216

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Today, apple futures prices dropped significantly, with the main May contract falling 3%. High apple prices have led to poor market demand and slow sales. Traders are turning pessimistic, and spot prices are slightly weak, putting pressure on the futures market. In the short - term, weak demand will dominate the market. The 1 - month contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to delivery cost support. The May contract may trade based on weak demand, but the possibility of a continued sharp decline is low [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index is 108.24, down 0.75 from the next - working - day level. Prices of various apple varieties like Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 remain stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.53, down 0.04 [2] - Futures Prices: The AP01 contract is down 5, AP05 is down 103, and AP10 is down 40. The spreads between different contracts also show changes, such as AP01 - AP05 up 98 and AP05 - AP10 down 63 [2] - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against different contracts shows changes, e.g., Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is up 5 [2] Second Part: Market News and Views - Transaction Logic: High apple prices due to reduced production and poor quality have led to weak demand. Last week's cold - storage apple sales volume was only 4.97 tons, and traders' sentiment has turned pessimistic, affecting the futures market [5] - Transaction Strategy: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, go long on the January contract and short on the October contract for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options trading [8] - Other Data: As of December 3, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory in major production areas was 763.51 tons, a decrease of 3.24 tons from the previous week. In October 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 0.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. The export volume was about 8.04 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04% [7] Third Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the prices of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volume in some markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple delivery volume [10][13][19][21][25]