碳酸锂日报：碳酸锂诸多谜题未解，十万下方窄幅波动蓄势待发-20251216

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report In the context of the dynamic balance between supply and demand, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Future lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to maintain a range-bound pattern, with the main contract likely to fluctuate in the range of 95,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [3][59]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On December 15, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract slightly declined to 97,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,160 yuan/ton compared to December 12. The basis strengthened, narrowing from -6,380 yuan/ton on December 12 to -3,720 yuan/ton [1]. - Open Interest and Trading Volume: The open interest slightly increased, reaching 636,384 lots on December 15, an increase of 2,101 lots compared to 634,283 lots on December 12. The trading volume also expanded to 757,689 lots, an increase of 13,499 lots compared to the previous value of 744,190 lots [1]. Analysis of Changes in Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Supply Side: The market price of spodumene concentrate slightly increased to 9,410 yuan/ton on December 15, an increase of 350 yuan/ton compared to December 12. The price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 4,990 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate significantly increased, reaching 83.52% on December 12, an increase of 8.18 percentage points compared to 75.34% on December 5. The main reason was the commissioning of new production lines and the optimization of salt - field processes, which promoted supply growth. Information showed that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December was expected to increase by about 3% month - on - month, and the supply - side pressure continued [2]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream demand remained stable but showed obvious differentiation. The prices of cathode materials slightly increased. On December 15, the price of power - type ternary materials rose to 145,800 yuan/ton, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose to 39,680 yuan/ton. The cell production schedule was at a high level, but CPCA data showed that the sales volume of new energy vehicles from December 1 - 7 decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Downstream material manufacturers were cautious in their purchasing intentions, mainly using price - fixing methods. Information indicated that the demand for fast - charging batteries was booming, but the overall demand decreased slightly month - on - month despite the strong supply and demand in the energy storage market [2]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The lithium carbonate inventory continued to decline, reaching 111,469 physical tons on December 12, a decrease of 2,133 tons compared to 113,602 tons on December 5, but the inventory reduction rate slowed down compared to the previous period [2]. Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, and the main contract may fluctuate in the range of 95,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton. The reason is that the supply is steadily increasing due to the increase in capacity utilization rate and the commissioning of new projects on the supply side. Although the demand side is affected by the short - term decline in new energy vehicle sales, the high cell production schedule and the demand for fast - charging batteries provide support. The slowdown in inventory reduction highlights the dynamic balance between supply and demand. Cautious market sentiment and the game in annual long - term contract negotiations may suppress the unilateral price trend, resulting in a volatile consolidation situation [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring On December 15, 2025, compared with December 12, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3,340 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 3.42%; the basis decreased by 3,040 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 81.72%; the open interest of the main contract increased by 25,801 lots, with a change rate of 4.05%; the trading volume of the main contract decreased by 58,088 lots, with a change rate of - 7.67%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 300 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.32%; the market price of spodumene concentrate increased by 158 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.68%; the market price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 185 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 3.71%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The price of power - type ternary materials increased by 250 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.17%; the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 160 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.40% [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Spot Market Quotations On December 15, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 95,238 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 657 yuan/ton. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,500 - 96,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 95,150 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 650 yuan/ton. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 92,000 - 93,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 92,650 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 650 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated within a range. The main contract was in the range of 97,300 - 101,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 101,060 yuan/ton. Affected by the sentiment, the futures price exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton in the afternoon. Downstream material manufacturers were cautious and had weak purchasing intentions. The actual market transactions were light, mainly using post - price - fixing methods. Currently, the annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises are still ongoing, and the focus of the game is on the price coefficient and procurement volume for next year. On the supply side, with the gradual commissioning of some new production lines and the pull of downstream demand on production, the domestic lithium carbonate production in December is expected to continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In terms of demand, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in December is expected to be still impressive; the energy storage market will continue to have strong supply and demand, and the supply - tight pattern will remain. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials in December are expected to remain at a high level but decline slightly month - on - month. Overall, in the context of steadily increasing supply and relatively stable overall demand, lithium carbonate is expected to continue to reduce inventory in December, but the reduction rate will slow down compared to November [6]. Downstream Consumption Situation According to CPCA data on December 10, from December 1 - 7, the retail sales volume of new energy vehicles in the national passenger - car market was 185,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The cumulative retail sales volume this year was 1,165.7 million units, a year - on - year increase of 19%. From December 1 - 7, the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger - car manufacturers was 191,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 22% and a month - on - month decrease of 20%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 1,394.7 million units, a year - on - year increase of 27% [7]. Industry News - On December 11, in recent years, fast - charging lithium iron phosphate batteries represented by CATL's Shenxing battery and BYD's Blade battery have accelerated their penetration in vehicle installations, and the market demand for high - density lithium iron phosphate materials has been increasing. To seize the technological high - ground of this high - end product, industry enterprises have continued to increase their layout. Recently, Wanrun New Energy announced that to improve the supply capacity of its high - end products, it will upgrade the production line of the "120,000 - ton/year lithium iron phosphate project" in the "240,000 - ton/year lithium iron phosphate co - produced with 240,000 - ton/year iron phosphate project" of Lubei Wanrun Smart Energy Technology (Shandong) Co., Ltd., and adjust the product structure to high - density lithium iron phosphate products [9]. - On November 28, on November 26, Sichuan Energy Power (000155) mentioned in an institutional research that in terms of lithium batteries, the company holds the mining right of the Lijiagou lithium mine, with a proven ore resource reserve of 3.8812 million tons, an average grade of 1.30%, a production scale of 1.05 million tons of raw ore per year, and an annual production of about 180,000 tons of concentrate. The project basically reached the designed production capacity at the end of August 2025 [9].