贵州省地方债务化解观察与展望：山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In recent years, Guizhou Province's local debt has shown characteristics such as continuous growth in scale, heavy regional debt burden, differentiated debt pressure among cities, liquidity pressure on some urban investment enterprises, concentrated redemption of urban investment bonds, and persistent negative public opinions. Despite relatively weak debt - resolution resources, with strong policy support from the central government and increasingly diverse debt - resolution means, certain achievements have been made in debt resolution. However, issues such as high credit spreads of urban investment bonds and continuous short - term liquidity pressure on urban investment enterprises still need attention. - In the short term, with the continuous implementation of a package of debt - resolution and incremental debt - resolution policies, Guizhou, as a key province, will continue to benefit, and the liquidity risk is generally controllable within the policy protection period, but the principal and interest repayment pressure on urban investment enterprises remains high. - In the long run, debt resolution depends on the self - development of local governments and urban investment enterprises. Guizhou has obvious advantages in industries such as liquor, mineral deep - processing, digital economy, new energy, characteristic agriculture, and cultural tourism. With the construction of a modern industrial system and the improvement of high - quality development levels, Guizhou is expected to resolve its debt during development [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Introduction - Guizhou is an important area in China's regional coordinated development, but due to factors such as terrain, transportation, and industrial structure, its economic aggregate ranks in the middle and lower reaches nationwide, with weak fiscal strength, heavy dependence on central subsidies, and a heavy local government debt burden. Since 2018, negative public opinions in Guizhou have attracted market attention. Under the support of policies such as the "package of debt - resolution", Guizhou has actively explored debt resolution [5]. 3.2 Debt Characteristics - Continuous growth in local debt scale and heavy regional debt burden: As of the end of 2024, Guizhou's local government debt balance was 1753.709 billion yuan, and the debt scale of urban investment enterprises was about 900 billion yuan. Its government debt ratio and broad - based government debt ratio rank in the upper - middle level nationwide, indicating a heavy regional debt burden [7]. - Differentiated regional debt burden, with heavier debt burdens in Guiyang and Zunyi: As of the end of 2024, the provincial - level government debt and urban investment enterprise debt in Guizhou accounted for less than 15% and about 11% respectively, while the debt of city (prefecture) - level, district - county - level, and park - level urban investment enterprises accounted for about 48%, 22%, and 18% respectively. The urban investment enterprise debt is mainly concentrated in Guiyang and Zunyi. Guiyang, Zunyi, and Liupanshui rely more on urban investment enterprise financing, and their broad - based government debt ratios are relatively high [9]. - Large liquidity pressure on urban investment enterprises in some cities (prefectures): Although the debt structure of Guizhou's urban investment enterprises is relatively reasonable, urban investment enterprises in some areas such as Qiannan, Qiandongnan, and Tongren have small cash - like assets and large short - term debt repayment pressure [12]. - Concentrated redemption of urban investment bonds: The issuance of urban investment bonds in Guizhou is concentrated in Guiyang and Zunyi. The redemption scale of urban investment bonds in Guizhou increased year by year from 2021 to 2023 and then decreased significantly. However, the redemption scale of due bonds in Guiyang and Zunyi is still large [14]. - Persistent negative public opinions: Since 2018, non - standard negative events in Guizhou's urban investment enterprises have been the highest in the country, mainly concentrated in Zunyi and Qiannan. The number of urban investment enterprises with bill overdue in Guizhou ranked third in the country from 2022 - 2024, and as of the end of October 2025, there were still 16 enterprises in the continuous overdue list, mainly concentrated in Zunyi, Guiyang, and Liupanshui [16]. 3.3 Debt - Resolution Achievements 3.3.1 Debt - Resolution Resources - Fiscal resources: In 2024, Guizhou's comprehensive financial resources ranked 14th in the country, with general public budget revenue of 217 billion yuan (ranked 21st) and government - funded revenue of 231.528 billion yuan (ranked 8th). Its fiscal self - sufficiency rate is less than 35%. Although the scale of state - owned land transfer income has declined since 2021, the government - funded revenue has continued to grow. The coverage of government - funded revenue for government debt interest is at a medium - upper level in the country. As of the end of 2024, Guizhou's debt space exceeded 280 billion yuan, ranking first among key provinces [22][25]. - Financial resources: Since 2020, the balance of local financial institutions' deposits and loans in Guizhou has continued to grow rapidly. As of the end of 2024, the balance of local financial institutions' loans and deposits ranked 19th and 25th in the country respectively, and the loan - to - deposit ratio was the highest in the country. As of November 16, 2025, the total credit line of banks for bond - issuing enterprises in Guizhou exceeded 1 trillion yuan, and the credit lines of Guizhou Bank and Guiyang Bank accounted for more than 90% of the total. The total assets and deposits of Guizhou's city commercial banks rank 16th in the country, and their coverage of urban investment enterprise debt is at a medium level in the country [27][29]. - Local state - owned enterprise resources: Although the number of listed companies in Guizhou ranks relatively low in the country, the total market value is at a medium level. As of the end of September 2025, the total market value of Kweichow Moutai exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 85% of the total market value of listed companies in Guizhou. The market value of listed companies held by local state - owned enterprises in Guizhou has a relatively high coverage of urban investment enterprise debt, but the reduction of Kweichow Moutai's equity is restricted [33]. 3.3.2 Debt - Resolution Measures - Financial support for debt resolution: It mainly includes debt restructuring, non - standard discounted repayment, and "unified borrowing and repayment". For example, in 2022, Zunyi Road and Bridge Construction (Group) Co., Ltd. carried out loan extension and interest - rate reduction restructuring; since 2023, there have been cases of non - standard discounted repayment in many cities in Guizhou; in February 2024, Guizhou first practiced "unified borrowing and repayment" nationwide, involving a bond amount of about 3.6 billion yuan [37][38]. - Special refinancing bonds and special new special bonds: In 2024, Guizhou was allocated a quota of 352.8 billion yuan for special refinancing bonds, and 800 billion yuan was arranged from new local government special bonds for five consecutive years starting from 2024 for debt resolution. Since 2024, the cumulative issuance amount of special refinancing bonds and special new special bonds in Guizhou ranks among the top in key provinces, and the early redemption amount of urban investment bonds exceeds 30 billion yuan [39]. - Activating state - owned enterprise resources for debt resolution: "Moutai debt resolution" is a typical case, which includes equity transfer and reduction of Kweichow Moutai, bond issuance by Moutai Group to acquire the equity of Guizhou Expressway, and financing and capital operation by the finance company to relieve the liquidity pressure of state - owned platforms [41]. - Other methods: These include setting up emergency funds, arranging various fiscal funds, transferring the right to state - owned asset income, and using operating income. Provincial state - owned platforms also provide support such as emergency loan transfer, credit support, and credit enhancement for urban investment enterprises [42]. 3.3.3 Debt - Resolution Performance - Significant reduction in the debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises and improvement in the financing structure: Since the end of 2022, the debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Guizhou has continued to decline. The scale of bank loans and bond financing has decreased, and the proportion of bank loans and other financing has increased to about 67% and 14% respectively, while the proportion of bond financing has decreased to about 19% [44]. - Continuous net repayment of urban investment bonds and reduced concentrated redemption pressure: Since 2021, urban investment bonds in Guizhou and most of its cities (prefectures) have been in a state of net repayment, with an annual net repayment scale of over 35 billion yuan from 2023 - 2024. As of the end of September 2025, the scale of outstanding urban investment bonds in Guizhou was about 138 billion yuan, and the maturity scale in the next four years is relatively balanced [47]. - Significant narrowing of the credit spread of urban investment bonds: Since the implementation of the package of debt - resolution plans, the credit spread of urban investment bonds in Guizhou has narrowed significantly since the end of 2023, but it is still at the highest level among key debt - resolution provinces. As of the end of October 2025, the credit spread has decreased by more than 300BP compared with the beginning of 2021. However, the cash - like assets' coverage of short - term debt has decreased, and the short - term liquidity of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises is still under pressure [49][51]. 3.4 Debt - Resolution Outlook - Short - term outlook: With the continuous implementation of the package of debt - resolution and incremental debt - resolution policies, Guizhou will continue to benefit, and the liquidity risk is generally controllable within the policy protection period. However, the principal and interest repayment pressure on urban investment enterprises is still large due to factors such as the contradiction between debt resolution and development, restrictions on new financing, and insufficient coverage of interest by current debt - resolution policies [55][56]. - Long - term outlook: Debt resolution depends on the self - development of local governments and urban investment enterprises. Guizhou has obvious advantages in industries such as liquor, mineral deep - processing, digital economy, new energy, characteristic agriculture, and cultural tourism. By building a modern industrial system and promoting high - quality development, Guizhou is expected to resolve its debt during development [57].