沪铜日报：情绪降温，价格回落-20251216

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, the price of Shanghai copper dropped from a high level, after a significant price increase last week, the scrap copper enterprises were cautious, leading to a wider spread between refined and scrap copper. After the clarification of Document 770, the production enthusiasm in relevant regions such as Anhui and Jiangxi may change, potentially increasing the supply of scrap copper. The copper processing profit was squeezed this week, and the production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip was weak, with the capacity utilization rate declining. The copper tube enterprises were restricted by capital pressure, and most enterprises chose to wait and see, only maintaining the raw material procurement for rigid orders. The copper foil remained at a high - prosperity level due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and the pre - demand for new energy vehicles. Fundamentally, the long - term contracts are still under negotiation, and the processing fees mostly ended in negative values. Before 2026, the pre - demand for new energy vehicles will increase the consumption demand for copper, providing support for copper prices and preventing a sharp decline. Future attention should be paid to the processing fee negotiation next year [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - In November, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.05%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The cumulative production from January to November increased by 1.2894 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.76%. SMM expects the electrolytic copper production in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month, an increase of 5.96%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.69% [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and went high, but declined during the day. - Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China was - 115 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in South China was 90 yuan/ton. On December 15, 2025, the LME official price was $11,730 per ton, and the spot premium was + $44.5 per ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of the latest data on December 15, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - $43.33 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.41 cents per pound [7] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 42,200 tons, an increase of 9,663 tons from the previous period. As of December 15, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 97,200 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 165,900 tons, an increase of 50 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 452,800 short tons, an increase of 3,320 short tons from the previous period [10]